Thursday, October 2, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-2-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Mildly Higher as ECB Draghi Declined to Quantity Target for Asset Purchase

Euro is mildly higher in early US session after ECB left policies unchanged. ECB president Mario Draghi said that the central bank will buy assets for at least two years to lift inflation and boost growth. While he said the purchase will have sizeable impact on the balance sheet, he declined to provide any specific target. He added that "the risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area remain on the downside." And, "the recent weakening in the euro area's growth momentum, alongside heightened geopolitical risks, could dampen confidence and, in particular, private investment." Euro bears pared back some bets on uncertainty on how aggressive ECB's purchase would be.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2591; (P) 1.2615 (R1) 1.2647; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2570 temporary low. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, a short term bottom could be formed too. Break of 1.2705 minor resistance will bring stronger recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.2994 resistance and bring fall resumption. Meanwhile, break of 1.2570 will extend the fall from 1.3993 towards 1.2042 low.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Sep 35.30% 40.50%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Aug -0.79B -0.78B -1.36B -1.08B
01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Aug 3.00% 1.00% 2.50% 2.10%
08:30 GBP Construction PMI Sep 64.2 63.5 64
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Aug -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% -0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Aug -1.40% -1.20% -1.10% -1.30%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Sep -24.40% -20.70%
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 27) 287K 299K 293K 295K
14:00 USD Factory Orders Aug -10.10% -9.00% 10.50%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 112B 107B 97B
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rebounded in European session and offers at 1.2650-60, 1.2675 and 1.2680-85 were filled but more sell orders are reported at 1.2700-10, 1.2725-35 and 1.2750, selling interest is expected to emerge at 1.2775-85 and 1.2800. On the downside, bids remain at 1.2600, 1.2580-90 and 1.2565, buy orders in good size are tipped at 1.2540-50 (more stops below), 1.2525-35 and 1.2500 (stops below figure), fresh demand should emerge around 1.2485 and 1.2450.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9500

As dollar has slipped again after holding below indicated resistance at 0.9597 (this week's high), retaining our view that further consolidation is in store and another corrective fall cannot be ruled out but reckon support at 0.9499 would limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 0.9597 would confirm recent upmove from 0.8699 low has resumed and extend further gain to 0.9630

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6250

As the British pound has remained under pressure and broke below support at 1.6162, adding credence to our view that rebound from 1.6052 has ended at 1.6525 and bearishness remains for the decline from 1.6525 to extend weakness to 1.6120-25 and possibly towards 1.6100, however, loss of near term momentum should prevent sharp fall below latter level and price should stay above said support at 1.6052.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

 

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