Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-9-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soft as Markets Await FOMC Minutes

While Nikkei suffered sharp -307 pts, or -2.1% decline earlier in Asian session, European indices are mildly higher. US index futures also points to mildly higher open as markets could continue to digest recent sharp decline in stocks. Yen retreated mildly after yesterday's strong rally but is held well above intraday support level. On the other hand, dollar remains generally weak against all other major currencies even though there is no fresh selling in the greenback yet. Main focus will be on FOMC minutes to be released in later in the US session. The main point to look for in the FOMC minutes for March 18-19 meeting is the discussion and whether there were consensus among policymakers on the timing of rate hike. Fed chair talked about the time frame of six months after QE ends and it would be interesting to know how others thought. Otherwise, the minutes might not reveal much new information.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6651; (P) 1.6703; (R1) 1.6799; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside and current rise from 1.6465 is expected to continue to 1.6785/6822 resistance zone first. Correction form 1.6822 should have completed at 1.6465 after hitting rising channel support. Break of 1.6822 will extend the whole up trend from 1.4813 to 7043 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6695 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.6550 support holds.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Mar -1.70% -1.50% -1.40%
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Apr 0.30% -0.70%
1:30 AUD Home Loans M/M Feb 2.30% 1.50% 0.00%
5:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report
6:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Feb 15.7B 17.5B 15.0B
8:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Feb -9.1B -9.3B -9.8B -9.5B
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Feb 0.50% 0.60%
14:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Feb 1.00% -1.90%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.4M
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.3780 and has traded with a firm undertone, however, offers are still noted at 1.3820 with stops above, some selling interest is still seen at 1.3840-50 with more stops building up above there. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3780, 1.3735-50 and 1.3730, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3700-10, more buy orders are located at 1.3685, 1.3665 and 1.3650 (stops below), buying interest is reported at 1.3625.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6685

As the British pound has continued to trade with a firm bias after this week's anticipated rally,  reinforcing our bullish view that low has been formed at 1.6555 last week and signaling early rise from 1.6460 has resumed for further gain towards previous resistance at 1.6786, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Sell at 102.55

As the greenback has rebounded after falling to 101.55 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to 102.25-30 is likely, however, reckon 102.50-55 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 104.13-101.55) would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 101.55 would extend the fall from 104.13 top to strong support at 101.20-21

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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