Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 4-30-14

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Daily Report: Yen Higher as BoJ Stands Pat, Raised Inflation Forecast Yen is mildly higher today after BoJ left policies unchanged as widely expected. The target of monetary base expansion is maintained at JPY 60-70T. Also, BoJ revised up inflation forecast and now projects that CPI will rise 2.1% in the fiscal year 2016. BoJ seemed to be confident to hit the inflation target without adding stimulus. Also released from Japan, PMI manufacturing dropped sharply to 49.4 in April, industrial production rose 0.3% mom in March, labor cash earnings rose 0.7% yoy in March, housing starts dropped -2.9% yoy in March. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.40; (P) 141.94; (R1) 142.29; More... Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. Price actions from 145.68 are viewed as forming a consolidation pattern with rise from 136.22 as the second leg. Break of 139.95 will revive that case that such second leg has completed. In such case, outlook will turn bearish as the third leg should have started for 136.22 support and below. Above 143.78 will extend the second leg but in that case, we'd expect strong resistance below 145.68 to limit upside and bring reversal. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
22:45	NZD	Building Permits M/M Mar	8.30%	2.00%	-1.70%	-1.60%
23:05	GBP	GfK Consumer Sentiment Apr	-3	-4	-5
23:15	JPY	Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Apr	49.4		53.9
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production M/M Mar P	0.30%	0.50%	-2.30%
1:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence Apr	64.8		67.3
1:30	JPY	Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Mar	0.70%	0.10%	0.00%	-0.10%
4:00	JPY	BoJ Rate Decision
5:00	JPY	Housing Starts Y/Y Mar	-2.90%	-2.90%	1.00%
6:00	CHF	UBS Consumption Indicator Mar			1.57
6:00	EUR	German Retail Sales M/M Mar		-0.70%	1.30%
7:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicator Apr		106	106.13
7:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change Apr		-10K	-12K
7:55	EUR	German Unemployment Rate Apr		6.70%	6.70%
9:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr		0.80%	0.50%
12:15	USD	ADP Employment Change Apr		208K	191K
12:30	USD	GDP (Annualized) Q1 A		1.10%	2.60%
12:30	USD	GDP Price Index Q1 A		1.50%	1.60%
12:30	USD	Employment Cost Index Q1		0.50%	0.50%
12:30	CAD	GDP M/M Feb		0.20%	0.50%
12:30	CAD	Industrial Product Price M/M Mar		0.50%	1.00%
12:30	CAD	Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar		1.00%	5.70%
13:45	USD	Chicago PMI Apr		56.5	55.9
14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories			3.5M
18:00	USD	FOMC Rate Decision		0.25%	0.25%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped quite sharply on lower-than-expected eurozone inflation data, bids at 1.3850 and 1.3825-35 were filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3800 is in focus, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3775-85 (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3750 (stops below), 1.3725 and further out at 1.3700. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3830, 1.3850 and in good size at 1.3870-80 (stops above), indicated sell orders (option related) remain at 1.3885-00 (with stops building up above barrier at 1.3900 and 1.3910), fresh offers are expected at 1.3925 and in good size further out at 1.3940-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Hold short entered at 1.3830

Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.3879, as the single currency met renewed selling interest just below yesterday's high of 1.3880 and has tumbled on lower-than-expected eurozone data, suggesting the rebound from 1.3785 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness towards this support, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and extend the fall from 1.3906 to 1.3760-62 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3673-1.3906)

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Buy at 102.30

Although dollar's intra-day breach of previous resistance at 102.73 suggests the rise from 101.33 low has resumed, as price has retreated from 102.78, minor consolidation would be seen and pullback towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 102.31) cannot be ruled out before prospect of another rise, above said resistance at 102.78 would extend the rise from 101.33 for a stronger correction of early fall from 104.13 to 103.05-10