Thursday, April 3, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 4-3-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Equities Extended Bull Run, Euro Soft ahead of ECB

US equities extended the bull run overnight as S&P 500 rose to another record close of 1890.9, up 5.38 pts or 0.29%. DOW also rose 40.39 pts, or 0.24% to close at 16573, just below record close of 16576.66. Treasury yields also surged with 10 year yield up 0.044 to 2.803 while 30 year yield rose 0.045 to 3.649. Dollar index, on the other hand, continued to hover in tight range above 80, around 55 days EMA, without any progress. Yen's recovery was rather brief and dipped to new low against dollar as overwhelmed by surging yield and risk appetite. European majors are staying in tight range against the greenback, so was Canadian dollar. Australia dollar dipped mildly after mixed data but quickly recovered back into prior range.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8263; (P) 0.8286; (R1) 0.8301; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for some more consolidations above 0.8245 temporary low. And, outlook stays mildly bearish. As noted before, the cross is staying inside medium term falling channel. Fall from 0.8399 should extend lower and below 0.8245 will target a test on 0.8157 low. Decisive break of 0.8157 carries larger bearish implications. Meanwhile, break of 0.8321 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8399 instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.20% 0.40% 1.20%
0:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Feb 1.20B 0.82B 1.43B 1.39B
1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Mar 54.5 55
7:45 EUR Italian Services PMI Mar 51.9 52.9
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Mar F 52.4 52.4
8:30 GBP Services PMI Mar 58.1 58.2
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb -0.60% 1.60%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Mar -24.40%
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 28) 319K 311K
12:30 USD Trade Balance Feb -$38.5B -$39.1B
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Feb 0.2B -0.18B
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Mar 53.5 51.6
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -57
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped again in NY opening, offers are lowered to 1.3800 and in good size from 1.3820 up to 1.3850 (stops above latter level), mixtures of offers and stops are located at 1.3870 and 1.3900. On the downside, bids at 1.3790 and 1.3770 were filled but buy orders are tipped at 1.3750-60 and in good size at 1.3725-35 (stops below), more buy orders are reported at 1.3695-10, buying interest is expected at 1.3660-70 with bigger stops placed below 1.3650.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8280

As the single currency has retreated after intra-day initial brief rise to 0.8309, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and Monday's low of 0.8252 needs to hold to retain bullishness for another rebound, above previous support at 0.8325-30 would suggest low is possibly formed and bring rebound to 0.8370

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.1170

The pair has remained confined within narrow range in line with our expectation and near term consolidation is likely to continue, as long as support at 1.1001 holds, initial upside bias remains for recovery to 1.1100-10, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.1160-70 and bring another decline, break of said support at 1.1001 would extend the fall from 1.1279 top (wave (v) of iii ) for correction of recent upmove in wave iv to 1.0950

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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