Monday, April 7, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 4-7-14

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Daily Report: Yen Higher on Risk Aversion as Nikkei Back Below 15000

The Japanese yen is generally higher in Asian session on risk aversion. Nikkei followed the sharp decline in US and dropped -254.9 pts, or -1.7%, back below 15000 handle at 14808.85. Hong Kong HSI is also down -140 pts, or 0.62% at the time of writing. The forex markets are relatively steady elsewhere. Commodity currencies are firm against dollar but stays below last week's high. European majors are mildly higher too, but is also stuck in tight range. The common currency also recovers mildly in crosses against Sterling, Swiss Franc and Aussie.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 170.52; (P) 171.51; (R1) 172.03; More.....

GBP/JPY dips to 170.81 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Rebound from 167.77 is completed at 173.14 and deeper fall should be seen back to this support. As noted before, price actions from 174.84 are viewed as a consolidation pattern with rebound from 163.87 as the second leg. Break of 167.77 will revive the case that such second leg has completed and will turn outlook bearish for 163.87 and below, as the third leg. Above 173.14 will extend the second leg but we'd expect strong resistance from 174.84 to bring reversal to extend the consolidation pattern.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
5:00 JPY Leading Index Feb P 108.5 108.8 113.1
6:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Feb 0.40% 0.30% 0.80% 0.70%
7:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Mar 437.9B 434.5B 433.5B 433.6B
7:15 CHF CPI M/M Mar 0.40% 0.20% 0.10%
7:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Mar 0.00% -0.10% -0.10%
8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Apr 13.9 13.9
14:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency bounced off intra-day low of 1.3681 as US job data came in lower than expected, offers at 1.3730 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.3740-50 and 1.3775-85, more selling interest is located from 1.3800 all the way up to 1.3850 with stops building up above latter level. On the downside, bids and stops at 1.3690-95 were tripped, however, buy orders are still seen at 1.3680, 1.3665 and 1.3650 (more stops below), fresh demand is tipped at 1.3625, 1.3600 barrier (stops below) and further out at 1.3585.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8875

As the greenback has retreated after Friday's brief rise to 0.8953, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 0.8901) is likely, however, downside should be limited to the lower Kumo (now at 0.8874) and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 0.8953 (Friday's high) would extend recent rise from 0.8699 low to 0.8980 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond psychological resistance at 0.9000

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3755

Despite Friday's brief fall to 1.3673, as the single currency has rebounded in part due to cross-buying in euro, suggesting consolidation above said support would be seen and recovery to the lower Kumo (now at 1.3733) is likely, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3759) would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support would signal recent fall from 1.3967 top is still in progress for retracement of early upmove to1.3660-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3477-1.3967) and possibly 1.3645-50 (100% projection of 1.3876-1.3705 measuring from 1.3820)

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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