Thursday, April 3, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-3-14

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Euro Tumbled as ECB Draghi Said QE Discussed ECB left the main-refinancing rate unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. Euro weakens as ECB president Draghi mentioned in the post meeting conference that there was a discussion about quantitative easing among policy makers. Draghi said that "the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using also unconventional instruments within its mandate in order to cope effectively with risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation." And, policy makers discussed about "lower interest rate", "lower deposit rate" and "QE". Nonetheless, he reiterated that deflation risk remained limited and more information is needed to assess where there is deviation in the medium term inflation outlook. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is still holding above 1.3704, last week's low. However, USD/CHF has taken the lead and breached 0.89 handle, which could be seen as a warning of Euro weakness ahead. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8831; (P) 0.8852; (R1) 0.8887; More... USD/CHF's rally in early US session and break of last week's high now argues that the pair has formed a short term bottom at 0.8698 after fall from 0.9838 completed a five wave structure. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.9156 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm this case and carries medium term bullish implications. Meanwhile, on the downside, below 0.8814 support will in turn suggest that rebound from 0.8698 has completed and revives near term bearishness. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
00:30	AUD	Retail Sales M/M Feb	0.20%	0.40%	1.20%
00:30	AUD	Trade Balance (AUD) Feb	1.20B	0.82B	1.43B	1.39B
01:00	CNY	Non-manufacturing PMI Mar	54.5		55
07:45	EUR	Italian Services PMI Mar	49.5	51.9	52.9
08:00	EUR	Eurozone Services PMI Mar F	52.2	52.4	52.4
08:30	GBP	Services PMI Mar	57.6	58.1	58.2
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb	0.10%	-0.60%	1.60%	1.00%
11:30	USD	Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Mar	-30.20%		-24.40%
11:45	EUR	ECB Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 28)	326K	319K	311K	310K
12:30	USD	Trade Balance Feb	-42.3B	-$38.5B	-$39.1B	-39.3B
12:30	CAD	Trade Balance (CAD) Feb	0.3B	0.2B	-0.18B	-0.3B
14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Mar	53.1	53.5	51.6
14:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage			-57

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency collapsed on comments from Draghi as he said ECB had a rich discussion on rates and QE, bids at 1.3750, 1.3725-35 and 1.3710 were filled, some buy orders are reported at 1.3695-00, fresh buying interest is expected at 1.3660-70 with bigger stops placed below 1.3650. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3740-50 and 1.3770, more sell orders are tipped at 1.3790-00 and in good size from 1.3820 up to 1.3850 (stops above latter level), mixtures of offers and stops are located at 1.3870 and 1.3900.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3750

Despite intra-day brief bounce to 1.3807, the single currency met renewed selling interest there and has dropped again, retaining our bearishness for recent decline from 1.3967 top to resume, below 1.3705 support would confirm and extend weakness to 1.3690, then 1.3660-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3477-1.3967) but reckon 1.3635-40 would hold

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8880

Although the greenback slipped briefly to 0.8844, dollar found decent demand there and has rallied above previous resistance at 0.8899, adding credence to our bullish view for the rise from 0.8699 low to resume and further gain to 0.8930-35 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9082-0.8699) would be seen, above there would extend gain to 0.8960 and later towards 0.8980