Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-1-14

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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Surges Against Yen Despite ISM Manufacturing Miss Dollar rallies against the Japanese yen in early US session even though ISM manufacturing index missed expectations. Though, the greenback is steady elsewhere as the movement is mainly triggered by yen's own weakness. US equities open higher with S&P 500 now heading back to its historical high. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 53.7 in March but was below consensus of 54.0. Improvements were seen in production and new orders. However, it should be noted that the employment component dropped to 51.1, down from 52.3, which is a negative factor for Friday's NFP. Also released in US session, US construction spending rose 0.1% mom in February. Canadian IPPI rose 1.0% mom in February while RMPI rose 5.7% mom. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.86; (P) 103.15; (R1) 103.50; More... The rebound from 101.20 is still in progress and could extend higher. As note before, price actions from 105.41 are viewed as a correction pattern, with those from 100.75 as the second leg. Current development argues that such second leg isn't completed yet. Further rise could be seen above 103.75. But in that case, we'd expect strong resistance below 105.41 to limit upside and start the third leg. Meanwhile, below 102.68 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 101.20 and then 100.75 low. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q1	17	19	16
23:50	JPY	Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1	24	25	20
01:00	CNY	Manufacturing PMI Mar	50.3	50.1	50.2
01:45	CNY	HSBC/Manufacturing PMI Mar F	48	48.5	48.5
03:30	AUD	RBA Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%	2.50%
07:30	CHF	SVME-PMI Mar	54.4	56.7	57.6
07:45	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI Mar	52.4	52.2	52.3
07:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change Mar	-12K	-10K	-14K	-15K
07:55	EUR	German Unemployment Rate Mar	6.70%	6.80%	6.80%	6.70%
08:00	EUR	Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F	53	53	53
08:00	EUR	Italian Unemployment Rate Feb P	13.00%	12.90%	12.90%
08:30	GBP	PMI Manufacturing Mar	55.3	56.5	56.9	56.2
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb	11.90%	12.00%	12.00%	11.90%
12:30	CAD	Industrial Product Price M/M Feb	1.00%	0.70%	1.40%
12:30	CAD	Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb	5.70%	2.30%	2.60%	2.80%
14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Mar	53.7	54	53.2
14:00	USD	ISM Prices Paid Mar	59	59	60
14:00	USD	Construction Spending M/M Feb	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to move higher and offers at 1.3810 were filled but sell orders are still noted from 1.3820 up to 1.3850 (stops above latter level), mixtures of offers and stops are located at 1.3870 and 1.3900. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3785, 1.3750-65 and in good size at 1.3725-35, more buy orders are reported at 1.3695-10, buying interest is tipped at 1.3660-70 with bigger stops placed below 1.3650.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 102.70

Although the greenback has rebounded again, break of yesterday's high of 103.44 is needed to signal recent rise from 101.21 has resumed and extend gain towards previous resistance at 103.76, having said that, as broad outlook remains consolidative, upside should be limited and price should falter below 104.00. If said resistance continues to hold, then further consolidation is in store and another corrective fall to 102.80 cannot be ruled out

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6600

As the British pound has retreated after holding below yesterday's high of 1.6684, suggesting minor consolidation would bee seen but downside should be limited to 1.6597-00 and bring another rise, above said resistance would extend the rise from 1.6460 to 1.6700 and possibly test of resistance at 1.6718, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond latter level