Friday, April 25, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-25-14

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Mid-Day Report: Yen Crosses Gathering Downside Momentum on Risk Aversion

After failing to rebound earlier today, Yen crosses seem to be gathering downside momentum before the week closes. Risk aversion is a factor in driving the Japanese yen higher. European indices are generally lower, in particular, with DAX down -110 pts, or -1.1% at the time of writing. Investors sentiments were weighed down by renewed tensions in Ukraine. US stock futures are pointing to a lower open too. USD/JPY is taking the lead and breaches 102.02 minor support and should be heading back to 101.32 level. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are also seen dipping mildly.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.05; (P) 102.34; (R1) 102.61; More...

USD/JPY's break of 102.02 minor support suggests that rebound from 101.32 has completed at 102.72 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 101.32 first. Break will argue that whole decline from 105.41 is finally resuming. In such case, USD/JPY should fall through 100.75 support to 100% projection of 105.41 to 100.75 from 104.12 at 99.46.Meanwhile,, above 102.72 will bring another rebound to extend the consolidation from 100.75.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Mar 1.30% 1.40% 1.30%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Food Y/Y Apr 2.70% 2.80% 1.00%
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb -1.10% -0.70% 1.00% 1.70%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.10% -0.40% 1.70% 1.30%
8:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase Mar 45.9K 48.9K 47.6K 47.2K
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F 84.1 83 82.6
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: The greenback dropped today since Tokyo and bids at 102.00-10 were filled, buy orders in good size are still noted at 101.80-90 (stops below 101.80), more bids are reported at 101.65 and 101.50, decent demand remains at 101.20-40 area with stops building up below 101.20. On the upside, offers are lowered to 102.40-50, 102.65-75 and 102.90-10 (stops above), more sell orders are tipped at 103.30-50 area.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold short entered at 102.40

Although dollar has rebounded again after falling to 102.09 yesterday and further consolidation is in store, reckon yesterday's high of 102.65 would limit upside and bring another decline later, a break of 102.00 would suggest top is possibly formed at 102.73 earlier this week, bring weakness towards support at 101.87, break there would confirm and signal rebound from 101.33 has ended, then further fall to 101.50-55 and later towards said support at 101.33.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3815

Although the single currency retreated quite sharply from this week's high of 1.3855 to 1.3791, as euro has rebounded again after holding above this week's low of 1.3785, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and as long as this level holds, mild upside bias remains for test of indicated strong resistance at 1.3855-65 but break there is needed to revive bullishness and signal low has been formed at 1.3785, this would also suggest the fall from 1.3906 has ended

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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