Thursday, April 17, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 4-17-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sterling Stays Firm ahead of Holiday Weekend

Sterling is so far the strongest currency this week after being propelled by yesterday's employment data. Markets are in consolidative mode elsewhere. Dollar is the second strongest currency but is held below last week's high. The Japanese yen is mixed as the strong rebound in stock markets this week triggered recoveries in yen crosses but momentum is so far unconvincing. Commodity currencies are also mixed with Canadian dollar holding on to mild gain while Kiwi is under heavy pressure. The economic calendar isn't too busy today and main feature is Canadian inflation, which could trigger some volatility in pre-holiday thin markets.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 170.63; (P) 171.36; (R1) 172.43; More.....

GBP/JPY's rebound from 169.50 extended to as high as 172.10 but stays in range. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall outlook is unchanged too. Price actions from 174.84 are viewed as a consolidation pattern with rebound from 163.87 as the second leg. Below 169.50 will bring another fall and break of 167.77 will revive the case that such second leg has completed and will turn outlook bearish for 163.87 and below, as the third leg. Above 173.14 will extend the second leg but we'd expect strong resistance from 174.84 to bring reversal to extend the consolidation pattern.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Q1 6 8
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Mar 37.5 40.2 38.3
6:00 EUR German PPI M/M Mar -0.30% 0.10% 0.00%
6:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Mar -0.90% -0.70% -0.90%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Feb 22.3B 25.3B
12:30 CAD CPI M/M Mar 0.40% 0.80%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Mar 1.10%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Mar 0.70%
12:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Mar 1.20%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 12) 316K 300K
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Apr 9.5 9
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 4B
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound rallied in London, offers at 1.6785-00 area were filled but sell orders in good size are still noted at 1.6820-25 (stops above 1.6830), 1.6840-50 and 1.6875, mixture of offers and stops is tipped at 1.6900. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.6760-70, 1.6715-25 and 1.6700, indicated decent demand remains at 1.6685-90 and 1.6640-60 area with bigger stops placed below 1.6640 and 1.6625.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3760

Despite intra-day rebound to 1.3851, as the single currency has retreated after meeting resistance around the upper Kumo, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.3906 to extend weakness to 1.3780 (previous support) but reckon 1.3762-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3673-1.3906) would contain downside and bring another rally.

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8845

Despite intra-day retreat to 0.8781, as the greenback has rebounded again after finding support just above the lower Kumo, retaining our view that near term upside risk remains for the rebound from last week's low of 0.8743 to bring retracement of recent decline, however, 0.8846-48 (another resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8953-0.8743) should limit upside and bring another decline later

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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