Friday, April 25, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 4-25-14

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Daily Report: Yen Crosses Recovery Dented by Risk Aversion

The yen crosses attempted to recover earlier today after weaker than expected inflation data from Japan. But the crosses were then weighed down by weakness in Asian equities. Japanese national CPI core rose 1.3% yoy in March, unchanged from February and was below expectation of 1.4%. Tokyo CPI core rose 2.7% yoy in April, versus expectation of 2.8% yoy. Most of the jump in Tokyo CPI came from the sales-tax hike on April. Taking away that impact, Tokyo CPI rose 1.0% yoy, unchanged from March. Also released from Japan, all industry index dropped -1.1% mom in February.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.12; (P) 141.45; (R1) 141.86; More...

EUR/JPY is still bounded in choppy sideway trading in range of 139.95/143.78 and intraday bias remains neutral. Price actions from 145.68 are viewed as forming a consolidation pattern with rise from 136.22 as the second leg. Break of 139.95 will revive that case that such second leg has completed. In such case, outlook will turn bearish as the third leg should have started for 136.22 support and below. Above 143.78 will extend the second leg but in that case, we'd expect strong resistance below 145.68 to limit upside and bring reversal.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Mar 1.30% 1.40% 1.30%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Food Y/Y Apr 2.70% 2.80% 1.00%
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb -1.10% -0.70% 1.00% 1.70%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Mar -0.40% 1.70%
8:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase Mar 48.9K 47.6K
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F 83 82.6
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped quite sharply on solid US data, bids at 1.3800-10 and stops below figure were cleared, however, more buy orders are reported at 1.3775-85 and 1.3750 (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3725 and further out at 1.3700. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.3820 and in good size at 1.3845-65 area, mixtures of offers and stops are located at 1.3870 and 1.3890-00, fresh selling interest is expected at 1.3920 and 1.3945-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8220

Although euro has retreated from 0.8246, yesterday's rebound suggests low is possibly formed at 0.8198 earlier this week and consolidation with mild upside bias remains for gain to 0.8250 and then 0.8265-70, break of latter level would add credence to this view and bring at least a retracement of recent fall to 0.8283-85 but break of resistance at 0.8310-15 is needed to signal recent decline has ended

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy again at 1.0930

Despite yesterday's anticipated rise to 1.1053, overbought condition suggests first leg of rise from 1.0858 (tentatively wave iv trough) would be limited to 1.1065-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1279-1.0858), risk from there has increased for a retreat, below 1.1000 would bring weakness to 1.0980-85 and possibly 1.0960 but downside should be limited to 1.0915-20 and bring another rise later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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