Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-23-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: CHF and JPY Higher on Cautious Sentiments, EUR Firm on PMIs

The Swiss Franc and, to a lesser extent, the Japanese yen are broadly higher today as European indices failed to hold on to initial gains and turned red as the days went on. US futures also point to a mildly lower open as investors could be cautious ahead of Apple's earning report after the bell. Euro are generally higher against other major currencies except the Franc and Yen after solid PMI data. But Sterling tumbled after the BoE minutes and Aussie stays weak after CPI disappointment. Canadian dollar is relatively steady after retail sales report which showed 0.5% growth while ex-auto sales grew 0.6% in February.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.44; (P) 102.58; (R1) 102.75; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 102.72 accelerates lower today but stays above 102.02 minor support and intraday bias is neutral first. Another rise cannot be ruled out, but we'd expect resistance below 104.12 to limit upside and bring another decline. Overall, the fall from 105.41 is expected to resume later. Below 102.02 will turn bias back to the downside and break of 101.32 should send USD/JPY through 100.75 support to 100% projection of 105.41 to 100.75 from 104.12 at 99.46.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q1 0.60% 0.80% 0.80%
01:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q1 2.90% 3.20% 2.70%
01:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q1 0.50% 0.70% 0.90%
01:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q1 2.60% 2.90% 2.60%
01:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q1 0.60% 0.70% 0.90%
01:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q1 2.70% 2.90% 2.60%
01:45 CNY HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Apr P 48.3 48.3 48
07:00 EUR French Manufacturing PMI Apr P 50.9 51.9 52.1 51.8
07:00 EUR French Services PMI Apr P 50.3 51.3 51.5
07:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI Apr P 54.2 53.8 53.7 53.7
07:30 EUR German Services PMI Apr P 55 53.3 53
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr P 53.3 53 53
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Apr P 53.1 52.5 52.2
08:30 GBP BoE Minutes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Mar 4.9B 8.5B 7.5B 7.0B
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Apr -1 7 6
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.50% 0.50% 1.30% 0.90%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Feb 0.60% 0.50% 1.00% 0.50%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Mar 384K 450K 440K 449K
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.5M 2.6M 10.0M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated after intra-day rise to 1.3855 but bids are still noted at 1.3820 and in good size at 1.3800 (stops below), more buy orders are reported at 1.3775-85 and 1.3750 (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3725 and further out at 1.3700. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3855, 1.3870 and 1.3890-00 (stops above figure), fresh offers are expected at 1.3920 and 1.3945-50. On the downside.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8835

Despite yesterday's brief rise to 0.8862, as the greenback has retreated sharply today, suggesting top is possibly formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 0.8800, break there would add credence to this view, bring test of strong support at 0.8780-81, below there would confirm and further fall towards previous support at 0.8743 would follow

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3825

As the single currency continued to find good support around 1.3800 and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting low is possibly formed at 1.3785 and consolidation with upside bias is seen but break of last week's high of 1.3865 is needed to confirm and signal fall from 1.3906 has ended, then a stronger rebound to 1.3880-85 and possibly 1.3906 would be seen 

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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