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Daily Report: Kiwi Mildly Firm after Hawkish RBNZ HikeNew Zealand dollar is mildly higher after RBNZ raised the OCR by 25bps to 3.00% as widely expected. The accompanying statement is seen as generally hawkish. Growth is expected to be 3.5% in the year to March, comparing to 3.3% as stated in prior statement. Meanwhile, "spare capacity is being absorbed, and inflationary pressures are becoming apparent." And, inflationary pressures are expected to continue to increase "over the next two years". RBNZ also maintained a tightening bias and noted that "The speed and extent to which the OCR will be raised will depend on economic data and our continuing assessment of emerging inflationary pressures, including the extent to which the high exchange rate leads to lower inflationary pressure." |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.1015; (P) 1.1033; (R1) 1.1050; More... Upside momentum is rather weak in USD/CAD but with 1.0958 minor support intact, rebound from 1.0857 could extend higher. But such rebound is viewed as part of the consolidation pattern from 1.1278 and we'd expect strong resistance above 61.8% retracement of 1.1278 to 1.0857 at 1.1117 to bring reversal to start another leg. Below 1.0958 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0857 support. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency retreated after intra-day rise to 1.3855 but bids are still noted at 1.3820 and in good size at 1.3800 (stops below), more buy orders are reported at 1.3775-85 and 1.3750 (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3725 and further out at 1.3700. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3855, 1.3870 and 1.3890-00 (stops above figure), fresh offers are expected at 1.3920 and 1.3945-50. On the downside. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8220As the single currency has staged a strong rebound after falling to 0.8198 yesterday (just held above previous support at 0.8191), suggesting low is possibly formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for gain to 0.8250 and then 0.8265-70, break of latter level would add credence to this view and bring at least a retracement of recent fall to 0.8283-85 Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3825As the single currency continued to find good support around 1.3800 and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting low is possibly formed at 1.3785 and consolidation with upside bias is seen but break of last week's high of 1.3865 is needed to confirm and signal fall from 1.3906 has ended, then a stronger rebound to 1.3880-85 and possibly 1.3906 would be seen Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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