Friday, April 4, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-4-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: US NFP Solid, But Overshadowed by Canadian Data

Dollar has some knee jerk reactions after non-farm payroll report and edged higher. But it seems that traders couldn't make up their mind on buying the greenback after having the first taste on the news. NFP showed 192k growth in March, basically inline with expectation of 190k. Prior month's figure, however, was revised up from 175k to 197k. Meanwhile, unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7% versus expectation of drop to 6.6%. Dollar is seen strengthening against European majors and yen after the release but there is so far no follow through buying yet. Also, its strength is overshadowed by Canadian dollar. Aussie and Kiwi are also mildly higher against the greenback.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1013; (P) 1.1028; (R1) 1.1052; More...

USD/CAD drops through 1.1000 temporary low and reaches as low as 1.0960 so far. Decline from 1.1278 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.0909 support next. Beak there will confirm medium term toping at 1.1278. On the upside, break of 1.1077 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Feb 0.60% 0.30% 1.20% 0.10%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Mar 42.9K 25.3K -7.0K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Mar 6.90% 7.00% 7.00%
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Mar 192K 190K 175K 197K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Mar 6.70% 6.60% 6.70%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Mar 58.3 57.2
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency bounced off intra-day low of 1.3681 as US job data came in lower than expected, offers at 1.3730 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.3740-50 and 1.3775-85, more selling interest is located from 1.3800 all the way up to 1.3850 with stops building up above latter level. On the downside, bids and stops at 1.3690-95 were tripped, however, buy orders are still seen at 1.3680, 1.3665 and 1.3650 (more stops below), fresh demand is tipped at 1.3625, 1.3600 barrier (stops below) and further out at 1.3585.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy at 142.00

Although the single currency retreated sharply yesterday after faltering below this week's high of 143.48 and further consolidation below this level would be seen, reckon downside would be limited to 141.90-00 and bring another rise later, above 143.00 would bring test of said resistance at 143.48, above this resistance would extend recent rise from 136.23 for retest of resistance at 143.79 first. Looking ahead, a break of this level would extend headway to 144.00 and then 144.50

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy at 0.9170

Aussie's retreat after this week's initial rise to 0.9304 suggests minor top is formed there and consolidation below this level is in store, however, downside should be limited to 0.9200 and renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.9160-70 and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 0.9304 would extend recent rise in wave C to 0.9335-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9758-0.866) but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9390-00

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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