Thursday, December 5, 2013

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-5-13

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Euro Jumps as ECB No in Rush for Action Despite Lowering Inflation Forecast ECB left rates unchanged at historical low of 0.25% as widely expected. The central bank lowered 2014 inflation projection to 1.1%, down from prior forecast of 1.3%. Also, ECB provided 2015 inflation forecast and is estimated to be at 1.3%. That means, its seeing inflation staying well below its own 2% target for two years. Growth projection, on the other hand, was revised up to 1.1% in 2014, comparing to prior forecast of 1.0%. Growth is expected to pick up further to 1.5% in 2015. ECB president Draghi said in the press conference that "medium term underlying price pressure in the euro are are expected to remain subdued". Meanwhile, looking ahead to 2014 and 2015, output is expected to recover at a slow pace". Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3545; (P) 1.3575 (R1) 1.3622; More.... EUR/USD's rally resumed today after brief consolidations and reaches as high as 1.3650 so far in early US session. The rebound from 1.3294 would now target 100% projection of 1.3294 to 1.3578 from 1.3399 at 1.3683. But we'd expect upside to be limited there to complete such rebound. Fall from 1.3832 is expected to resume later and break of 1.3520 will turn bias to the downside for 1.3399 and below first. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
00:30	AUD	Trade Balance (AUD) Oct	-529M	-375M	-284M	-271M
12:00	GBP	BoE Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
12:00	GBP	BoE Asset Purchase Target	375B	375B	375B
12:30	USD	Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Nov	-20.60%		-4.20%
12:45	EUR	ECB Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
13:30	EUR	ECB Press Conference
13:30	CAD	Building Permits M/M Oct	7.40%		1.70%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 29)	298K	322K	316K	321K
13:30	USD	GDP (Annualized) Q3 S	3.60%	3.10%	2.80%
13:30	USD	GDP Price Index Q3 S	2.00%	1.90%	1.90%
15:00	USD	Factory Orders Oct	-0.90%	-1.00%	1.70%
15:00	CAD	Ivey PMI Nov	53.7	60	62.8
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage			-13B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency went through a very choppy session today, retreated sharply from 1.3640 to 1.3543 on stronger-than-expected US data and then rallied from there in New York morning to a fresh 5-week high above 1.3650 due to ECB's press conference. Offers at 1.3640-50 were filled, stops placed above 1.3665-70 are in focus, mixture of offers and stops is located further out at 1.3700-10. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.3600 and in good size at 1.3540-45, more buy orders are located at 1.3525-30 with sell stops building up below 1.3520 and 1.3490-00 (bids above).

Read more...

Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6290

Despite intra-day initial bounce to 1.6404 (same level as yesterday's high), as cable has retreated after failing to penetrate this level, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and another corrective fall to 1.6300 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.6280-85 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Above said resistance would suggest the correction from 1.6443 has ended and bring a retest of this resistance

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 101.50

The greenback met renewed selling interest at 102.84 yesterday and dropped again from there, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the fall from this week's high of 103.38 to bring retracement of recent upmove to 101.55-59 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 99.79-103.38), however, price should stay well above 101.15-16 (previous support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring another rise later.