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Mid-Day Report: CAD Weakens after BoC, Dollar Gains Capped by ISM ServicesCanadian dollar extends recent decline after BoC left rates unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. The central noted in the accompanying statement that Q3 GDP growth, at 2.7% was better than projection. However, the composition of GDP "does not yet indicate a rebalancing towards exports and investment". Recovery in business investment spending was also "slower than anticipated". Meanwhile, BoC said inflation has "moved further below" the 2% target with core inflation held by "significant excess supply and by effects of heightened competition in the retail sales". And the outlook is "more persistent than anticipated". Overall, BoC said downside risks to inflation appear to be greater. The statement reaffirmed the case for BoC to stand pat in the near term, and could probably stay so for longer than originally thought. Also released from Canada trade balance showed CAD 0.1B surplus in October. |
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USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0627; (P) 1.0650; (R1) 1.0669; More... USD/CAD's rally extends in early US session and reaches as high as 1.0697 so far. Upside momentum is a bit unconvincing with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But further rally is still expected as long as 1.0630 minor support holds. Current rally would extend towards long term retracement level at 1.0803. But we'd expect strong resistance below there to bring topping. On the downside, below 1.0630 will turn bias back to the downside for a test on lower channel support first (now at 1.0497). |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency tumbled again on dollar's broad-based rebound in part due to the release of better-than-expected ADP job data, bids at 1.3550-60 together with stops below there were cleared, however, buy orders in good size remain at 1.3520-25, more buy orders are located from 1.3510 down to 1.3480, fresh demand should emerge at 1.3450-60, 1.3420 and further out at 1.3400. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3570-75 and in good size at indicated level of 1.3600-10 as well as 1.3625 (stops above). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Hold long entered at 102.05Dollar's intra-day sideways trading is likely to continue and as long as 102.20-24 holds, bullishness remains for another rebound to the upper Kumo (now at 102.87), however, break of resistance at 103.38 is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 103.50-58 (100% projection of 99.57-101.92 measuring from 101.15 and 100% projection of 101.15-102.61 measuring from 102.12) Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 0.9035The greenback met renewed selling interest at 0.9064 and has fallen again today, dampening our bullish prospect for another rebound and 0.9000 psychological support needs to hold to retain upside bias for another rebound, above said intra-day resistance would bring test of the Ichimoku cloud (now at 0.9070-78) but a break of indicated resistance at 0.9111-15 is needed to signal a temporary low is formed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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