Sunday, December 1, 2013

Action Insight Daily Report 12-2-13

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Daily Report: Aussie and Kiwi Higher on Data, Manufacturing Data Featured Today

Aussie and Kiwi opened the week higher with support from economic data. Meanwhile, sterling also extended rally against the greenback and yen with support from cross buying against Europeans. Yen is stuck in range for the moment. Asian equities were mixed, swinging between gains and losses. Housing data from Australia saw building approves dropped -1.8% mom, rose 23.1% yoy in October. that was better than expectation of -5.0% mom, 17.0% yoy. TD securities inflation expectation rose 0.2% mom in November. New Zealand terms of trade index rose sharply by 7.5% qoq in Q3 comparing to expectation of 2.9% qoq.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9063; (P) 0.9101; (R1) 0.9148; More...

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but with 0.9203 minor resistance intact, the decline from 0.9757 could extend lower. Below 0.9055 temporary low will target 100% projection of 0.9757 to 0.9267 from 0.9447 at 0.8957. On the upside, though, break of 0.9203 will indicate short term bottoming and would turn bias back to the upside for 0.9267/9447 resistance zone.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q3 7.50% 2.90% 4.90% 4.70%
23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Nov 0.20% 0.10%
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q3 1.50% 2.80% 0.00%
0:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Oct -1.80% -5.00% 14.40% -16.90%
0:30 AUD Building Approvals Y/Y Oct 23.10% 17.00% 18.60% 22.20%
1:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI Nov 50.8 50.5 50.9
8:30 CHF SVME PMI Nov 54 54.2
8:45 EUR Italian PMI Manufacturing Nov 50.7
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Nov F 51.5 51.5
9:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Nov 56.2 56
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Nov 55 56.4
15:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Nov 55 55.5
15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Oct 0.40%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency edged higher in European session, offers at 1.3590-1.3610 were filled, stops above 1.3620 are in focus, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3625 and 1.3640-50 (more stops above next barrier at 1.3650). On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3585-90 and 1.3570, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3555-60 and 1.3525-30, fresh demand should emerge from 1.3495 down to 1.3475 with stops building up below 1.3470-75.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8375

This week's sharp fall after meeting renewed selling interest at 0.8391 adds credence to our bearishness for early decline to resume after consolidation, bring a retest of recent low of 0.8300, however, a break of this support is needed to confirm resumption of the fall from 0.8815 (wave iii top) for a stronger correction of early upmove in wave iv towards 0.8260-65

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0525

Despite yesterday's rise to 1.0603, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 1.0609, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.0520-25 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0490-00 would limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.0609 would adding credence to our view that recent upmove from 1.0182 low (wave (c) bottom) has resumed

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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