Monday, December 16, 2013

Action Insight Daily Report 12-17-13

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Daily Report: Aussie Stays Soft as RBA Left Door Open for Rate Cut Aussie stays soft in tight range against dollar in Asian session after RBA signaled in its meeting minutes that the door is still open for further interest rate cut. The central bank noted that "given the substantial degree of policy stimulus that had been imparted, it was prudent to hold the cash rate steady." However, the board won't "close off the possibility of reducing it further should that be appropriate to support sustainable growth in economic activity." RBA also said Aussie's exchange rate remained "uncomfortably high" and "a lower level would likely be needed to achieve balanced growth." That is, boosting growth in other sectors to pick up the slack left by mining investments, which topped. Also released, conference board leading indicator rose 0.5% in October. Technically, while AUD/USD lost some downside momentum as markets prepare for the FOMC announcement later this week, the near term trend is still bearish for a test on 0.8847 low. EUR/AUD is also staying in tight range around 1.54, holding on to near term bullishness for next projection level at 1.5787. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
AUD/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8922; (P) 0.8945; (R1) 0.8970; More... While AUD/USD lost some downside momentum, recovery is so far very weak. Intraday bias remains on the downside and the current fall from 0.9757 is expected to continue to 0.8847 low and below. On the upside, break of 0.9166 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bearish in case of stronger recovery. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous
23:00	AUD	Conference Board Leading Index Oct	0.50%		0.30%
0:30	AUD	RBA Minutes
9:30	GBP	DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Oct		4.10%	3.80%
9:30	GBP	PPI Input M/M Nov		-0.50%	-0.60%
9:30	GBP	PPI Input Y/Y Nov		-1.00%	-0.30%
9:30	GBP	PPI Output M/M Nov		0.00%	-0.30%
9:30	GBP	PPI Output Y/Y Nov		0.90%	0.80%
9:30	GBP	PPI Output Core M/M Nov		0.00%	0.10%
9:30	GBP	PPI Output Core Y/Y Nov		0.90%	0.90%
9:30	GBP	CPI M/M Nov		0.20%	0.10%
9:30	GBP	CPI Y/Y Nov		2.20%	2.20%
9:30	GBP	Core CPI Y/Y Nov		1.80%	1.70%
9:30	GBP	RPI M/M Nov		0.10%	0.00%
9:30	GBP	RPI Y/Y Nov		2.70%	2.60%
10:00	EUR	German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Dec		55	54.6
10:00	EUR	German ZEW (Current Situation) Dec		29.9	28.7
10:00	EUR	Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Dec		60.9	60.2
10:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI M/M Nov F		-0.10%	-0.10%
10:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Y/Y Nov F		0.90%	0.90%
10:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Nov		1.00%	1.00%
11:00	GBP	CBI Trends Total Orders Dec		11	11
13:30	CAD	Manufacturing Shipments M/M Oct		-0.30%	0.60%
13:30	USD	CPI M/M Nov		0.10%	-0.10%
13:30	USD	CPI Y/Y Nov		1.30%	1.00%
13:30	USD	CPI Core M/M Nov		0.10%	0.10%
13:30	USD	CPI Core Y/Y Nov		1.70%	1.70%
15:00	USD	NAHB Housing Market Index Dec		55	54

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rebounded in European session on better-than-expected PMI data, offers at 1.3770-75 and 1.3790 were filled but sell orders are still seen at 1.3800-10 and also at 1.3820-25, selling interest is tipped at 1.3840-50 (option barrier) and 1.3870-85. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3750-60 and 1.3725-30, more buying interest is located at 1.3700-10 (stops below 1.3680) and 1.3650-60 with more stops tipped below both levels, fresh demand from macro names should emerge around 1.3610-30 area.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8390

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after staging a strong rebound from 0.8252, reinforcing to our bullish view that a temporary low has been formed at 0.8252 earlier this month and bullishness remains for this rise to bring a stronger correction of recent decline towards 0.8464 resistance later, however, break there is needed to retain upside bias

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.0565

Despite Friday's rise to 1.0669, failure to penetrate indicated resistance at 1.0670-75 and the subsequent sharp retreat deferred our bullishness and support at 1.0561 (last week's low) needs to to retain bullishness for another rebound later, above said resistance at 1.0670-75 would signal the pullback from 1.0708 has ended and bring a retest of this level later