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Thursday, December 5, 2013

Action Insight Daily Report 12-6-13

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Soft ahead of Non-Farm Payroll, Stocks Tumbled again

Dollar remains mildly soft as markets are awaiting the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report from US. So far, the reactions to solid economic data from US were mixed. Stocks tumbled with DOW and S&P 500 losing ground for the fifth straight day overnight. However, dollar failed to gain ground on these positive data with dollar index gyrating lower through 80.3 level. The greenback is staying in negative territory against Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc and Kiwi this week. Markets seems not to be buying on the case of a December tapering announcement from Fed no matter what despite all the speculations. March tapering is still the base case to most. And Fed could also try to pave out a paced schedule when that happens to smooth the impact to the markets.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.46; (P) 101.95; (R1) 102.27; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as the decline from 103.37 would extend towards 100.61 resistance turned support. Note again that consolidation from 103.73 could still be in progress. Decisive break of 100.61 will confirm that the third leg has started and would turn near term outlook bearish for 96.56 and below. In case of another rise, we'd stay cautious on reversal ahead of 103.73 key resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY Leading Index Oct P 109.8 109.2
08:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Nov 434.7B
08:15 CHF CPI M/M Nov -0.20% -0.10%
08:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Nov -0.10% -0.30%
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Oct -0.90% 3.30%
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Nov 7.5K 13.2K
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Nov 7.00% 6.90%
13:30 CAD Labor Productivity Q/Q Q3 0.50% 0.50%
13:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Nov 183K 204K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate Nov 7.20% 7.30%
13:30 USD Personal Income Oct 0.30% 0.50%
13:30 USD Personal Spending Oct 0.20% 0.20%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator M/M Oct 0.00% 0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Oct 0.70% 0.90%
13:30 USD PCE Core M/M Oct 0.10% 0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Oct 1.10% 1.20%
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Dec P 76.2 75.1
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency went through a very choppy session today, retreated sharply from 1.3640 to 1.3543 on stronger-than-expected US data and then rallied from there in New York morning to a fresh 5-week high above 1.3650 due to ECB's press conference. Offers at 1.3640-50 were filled, stops placed above 1.3665-70 are in focus, mixture of offers and stops is located further out at 1.3700-10. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.3600 and in good size at 1.3540-45, more buy orders are located at 1.3525-30 with sell stops building up below 1.3520 and 1.3490-00 (bids above).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0535

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after this week's rally above previous resistance at 1.0609, adding credence to our bullish view for early upmove from 1.0182 low (wave (c) bottom) to extend further gain to 1.0730 (1.236 times projection of 1.0271-1.0526 measuring from 1.0415 and possibly 1.0750-60, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and reckon 1.0800 would hold

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6285

Cable's retreat after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.6404 (same level as yesterday's high) has retained our view that further consolidation would be seen and another corrective fall to 1.6300 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.6280-85 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Above said resistance would suggest the correction from 1.6443 has ended and bring a retest of this resistance

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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