Monday, December 16, 2013

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-16-13

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Staying in Range as Traders Got Cautious ahead of FOMC Later This Week There was no sustainable momentum for dollar to rebound further as markets continue to engage in consolidative trading ahead of FOMC later this week. The odds for tapering or not tapering are even as there are strong arguments for both sides. Traders are cautiously preparing surprises from Fed. Meanwhile, economic data release from US provided little inspiration. Empire state manufacturing index improved to 1 in December but missed expectation of 5. TIC capital flow rose to USD 35.4b in October but missed expectation of USD 40.0b. Industrial production, on the other hand, rose 1.1% in November versus consensus of 0.6%. We'd expect more sideway trading for the rest of the session. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3710; (P) 1.3739 (R1) 1.3769; More.... EUR/USD recovers today but stays below 1.3810 temporary low. Intraday bias stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen. Near term outlook stays mildly bullish with 1.3621 support intact. Above 1.3810 should send the pair through 1.3832 resistance towards 1.4 psychological level. However, break of 1.3621 will argue that the rebound from 1.3294 has completed and turn near term outlook mildly bearish. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
21:00	NZD	Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence Q4	120.1		115.4
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4	16	15	12
23:50	JPY	Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q4	20	16	14
00:01	GBP	Rightmove House Prices M/M Dec	-1.90%		-2.40%
01:45	CNY	HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI Dec	50.5	50.9	50.8	50.5
08:00	EUR	French PMI Manufacturing Dec P	47.1	49	48.4
08:00	EUR	French PMI Services Dec P	47.4	48.7	48
08:30	EUR	German PMI Manufacturing Dec A	54.2	53	52.7
08:30	EUR	German PMI Services Dec A	54	55.3	55.7
09:00	EUR	Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Dec A	52.7	51.9	51.6
09:00	EUR	Eurozone PMI Services Dec A	51	51.5	51.2
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Oct	14.5B	14.5B	14.3B	12.4B
13:30	CAD	International Securities Transactions (CAD) Oct	4.41B	9.24B	8.36B	8.29B
13:30	USD	Empire State Manufacturing Dec	1	5	-2.21
13:30	USD	Non-Farm Productivity Q3 F	3.00%	2.80%	1.90%
13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs Q3 F	-1.40%	-1.40%	-0.60%
14:00	USD	Net Long-term TIC Flows Oct	35.4B	$40.0B	$25.5B	31.3B
14:15	USD	Industrial Production Nov	1.10%	0.60%	-0.10%
14:15	USD	Capacity Utilization Nov	79%	78.40%	78.10%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rebounded in European session on better-than-expected PMI data, offers at 1.3770-75 and 1.3790 were filled but sell orders are still seen at 1.3800-10 and also at 1.3820-25, selling interest is tipped at 1.3840-50 (option barrier) and 1.3870-85. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3750-60 and 1.3725-30, more buying interest is located at 1.3700-10 (stops below 1.3680) and 1.3650-60 with more stops tipped below both levels, fresh demand from macro names should emerge around 1.3610-30 area.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3750

Current break of indicated resistance at 1.3770-75 signals the correction from 1.3811 (last week's high) has ended and a retest of this level would be seen, above there would extend further gain towards recent high of 1.3833 later, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and confirm medium term upmove from 1.2042 low has resumed for headway to 1.3850, then 1.3870-75

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8900

Although the greenback has retreated after meeting resistance at 0.8918, break of last week's low of 0.8840 is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 0.8815-20 (50% projection of 0.9839-0.8890 measuring from 0.9251) but oversold condition should limit downside to 0.8800 and reckon 0.8770-80 would hold from here