Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-10-13

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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Euro Firm on Tight Liquidity, Yen Recovering Euro remains firm against dollar today and this week's rally showed sign of acceleration. It's reported that the common currency was lifted by repatriation flows as European banks shore up their capital for an ECB asset quality review at the end of the year. That's reflected in three-month eurodollar cross currency basis swaps which turned positive for the first time since 2008, indicating that banks need to pay a premium to buy euro versus dollar. And there was talk that based on current tightness in liquidity condition, EUR/USD could extend recent rise and have a strong close at 2013 high for the year. Meanwhile, comments from ECB executive board member Coeure also provided support to the common currency. Coeure said overnight that there is no need for "spectacular" measures like "US style large scale asset purchases" because "inflation prospects are consistent with our objective". Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.00; (P) 103.16; (R1) 103.44; More... USD/JPY retreats sharply after failing to stay above 103.37. As it's staying in familiar range, intraday bias remains neutral first. We'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 103.73 to bring topping. Break of 101.62 will argue that the near term trend might be reversed. Further break of 100.61 will indicate that consolidation from 103.73 is extending with a third falling leg to 96.56 support and below. However, decisive break of 103.73 will pave the way to 110 psychological level next. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
23:50	JPY	Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Nov	4.30%	4.30%	4.10%
23:50	JPY	Tertiary Industry Index M/M Oct	-0.70%	0.30%	-0.20%	0.00%
0:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance Nov	58%	59%	57%
0:30	AUD	Home Loans Oct	1.00%	1.30%	4.40%	3.50%
0:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence Nov	5		5	6
5:00	JPY	Consumer Confidence Nov	42.5	44.2	41.2
5:30	CNY	Industrial Production Y/Y Nov	10.00%	10.10%	10.30%
5:30	CNY	Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Nov	19.90%	20.10%	20.10%
5:30	CNY	Retail Sales Y/Y Nov	13.70%	13.20%	13.30%
6:00	JPY	Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Nov P	15.40%		8.40%
9:30	GBP	Industrial Production M/M Oct	0.40%	0.40%	0.90%
9:30	GBP	Industrial Production Y/Y Oct	3.20%	3.20%	2.20%
9:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production M/M Oct	0.40%	0.40%	1.20%
9:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production Y/Y Oct	2.70%	2.90%	0.80%	0.70%
9:30	GBP	Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Oct	-9.7B	-9.1B	-9.8B	-10.1B
15:00	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate Nov			0.70%
15:00	USD	Wholesale Inventories Oct		0.30%	0.40%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone after intra-day initial rise to 1.3768, however, sell orders are still seen at 1.3770-90 and 1.3810-35 area with stops building up above 1.3835-40 and 1.3850 barrier. On the downside, bids remains at 1.3720-25 and 1.3690-00 (stops below), more buy orders are expected at 1.3670-80 as well as 1.3640-50 with bigger stops placed below 1.3620 and 1.3600.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3690

Euro's intra-day rally to 1.3768 signals recent upmove is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.3775-80 and possibly towards 1.3800, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and reckon previous chart resistance at 1.3833 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a correction later.

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6410

As the British pound has retreated after intra-day initial rise to 1.6466, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6418) is likely, however, reckon previous resistance at 1.6393 (now turned into support) would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.6466 would extend recent upmove to 1.6475-80, then psychological resistance at 1.6500