Thursday, December 12, 2013

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-12-13

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Steady after Mixed Economic Data, SNB Stood Pat Dollar stays in tight range against European majors and yen in early US session after mixed economic data. Retail sales rose 0.7% in November versus expectation of 0.3%. Ex-auto sales rose 0.2%, also beat consensus of 0.2%. However, initial jobless claims surged sharply by 68k to 368k in the week ended December 6, much higher than expectation of 321k. Just a week ago, the figure was revised slightly up to 300k. The volatility in the series was viewed as due to seasonal adjustments around thanks giving holidays. And, more volatility could be seen in the coming weeks due to Christmas holidays. Continuing claims rose 40k to 2.79m in the week ended November 30. Also released from US, import price index dropped -0.6% mom in November. Canadian new housing price index rose 0.1% mom in October. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8839; (P) 0.8863; (R1) 0.8886; More... USD/CHF continues to struggle in tight range around long term retracement level at 0.8861 for the moment and intraday bias stays neutral. With 0.8934 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is expected in the pair. Sustained break of 0.8861 will have larger bearish implication and would pave the way to 0.8518 next. On the upside, though, above 0.8934 will argue that a short term bottom is formed and would bring stronger rebound back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.8955) and above. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
20:00	NZD	RBNZ Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%	2.50%
00:00	AUD	Consumer Inflation Expectation (Dec)	2.10%		1.90%
00:30	AUD	Employment Change Nov	21K	10.3K	1.1K
00:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate Nov	5.80%	5.80%	5.70%
08:30	CHF	SNB Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
09:00	EUR	ECB Publishes Monthly Report
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Oct	-1.10%	0.40%	-0.50%	-0.20%
13:30	CAD	New Housing Price Index M/M Oct	0.10%	0.30%	0.00%
13:30	USD	Advance Retail Sales Nov	0.70%	0.30%	0.40%	0.60%
13:30	USD	Retail Sales Less Autos Nov	0.40%	0.20%	0.20%	0.50%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 6)	368K	321K	298K	300K
13:30	USD	Import Price Index M/M Nov	-0.60%	-0.80%	-0.70%	-0.60%
15:00	USD	Business Inventories Oct		0.40%	0.60%
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage			-162B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has retreated after faltering below yesterday's high of 1.3811, bids at 1.3770 and 1.3750 were filled, stops below 1.3735-40 are now in focus, however, fresh demand should emerge 1.3700-10 and further out at 1.3650-60 with more stops tipped below both levels. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.3790-00 and 1.3820-25, more sell orders in good size are tipped at 1.3840-50 (another barrier), more stops are reported at 1.3870-85 with mixture of offers and stops located further out at 1.3900 barrier.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3700

Although the single currency rose again yesterday to 1.3811, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat suggest minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to the lower Kumo (now at 1.3748) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.3695-00 would limit downside and bring another rise later towards recent high of 1.3833 but reckon 1.3850-60 would limit upside and reckon 1.3875-80 would hold on first testing

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8935

Yesterday's resumption of decline to 0.8840 adds credence to our bearish view that recent decline is still in progress and may extend further weakness to 0.8815-20 (50% projection of 0.9839-0.8890 measuring from 0.9251), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 0.8800 and reckon 0.8770-80 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a corrective rebound