Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Action Insight Mid-Day report 12-11-13

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Markets Lack Directions, RBNZ Watched in Upcoming Asian Session

Markets are rather mixed for today without a clear direction. Sterling's retreat is most notable as it weakened sharply against dollar after just hitting a two year high this week. Crosses selling of the pound against euro and yen also helped weigh down it. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to extend this week's recovery on as Asian equities pulled back sharply. Commodity currencies were mixed with USD/CAD extending this week's decline but AUD/USD fails to sustain corresponding rebound. After all, Euro and Swissy are both firm and steady in range against the greenback, seems not too affected by volatility elsewhere.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6419; (P) 1.6442; (R1) 1.6466; More...

GBP/USD drops sharply after hitting 1.6465 and with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. With 1.6290 minor support intact, further rally is still expected in GBP/USD. Above 1.6465 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4813 to 1.6259 from 1.5853 at 1.6747, which is close to 1.6476 next medium term resistance. However, considering mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.6290 will suggest that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper pull back to 55 days EMA (now at 1.6121.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (Dec) -4.80% 1.90%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Oct 0.60% 0.90% -2.10%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Nov 2.70% 2.70% 2.50%
7:00 EUR German CPI M/M Nov F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
7:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Nov F 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -5.6M
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Nov -154.6B -91.6B
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound extended intra-day fall after faltering below 2-year high formed yesterday at 1.6466, bids at 1.6400-10 and 1.6375-85 were filled but buy orders in good size are still noted at 1.6350-60 and 1.6330, more buy orders are reported at 1.6315 and 1.6290-00 (more stops below). On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.6410-20, 1.6440-50 and in good size at 1.6470-80, more sell orders are tipped ahead of barrier at 1.6500, 1.6520-30 and 1.6550.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8935

Yesterday's breach of previous support at 0.8890 confirms early decline has resumed and bearishness remains for further weakness to 0.8850, then 0.8815-20 (50% projection of 0.9839-0.8890 measuring from 0.9251), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 0.8800 and reckon 0.8770-80 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a corrective rebound to take place later this week.  

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3700

Although the single currency retreated after rising to 1.3795 yesterday and consolidation below this level is seen, reckon the lower Kumo (now at 1.3694) would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.3795 would extend recent upmove towards recent high of 1.3833, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond this resistance

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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