Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-18-13

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Sterling Rebounds on Job Data, FOMC Next Sterling rebounded strongly today on the back of upside surprises in employment data. Unemployment unexpectedly dropped to 7.4% in October, the lowest level since April 2009. Claimant counts also dropped slightly more than expected by -36.7k in November while October's number was revised from -41.7k to -42.8k. Also released from UK, CBI reported sales improved sharply to 34 in December. GBP/USD is back trading above 1.63 after dipping to as low as 1.6126 earlier this week. GBP/JPY also recovered and is back above 168, up from this week's low of 166.57. EUR/GBP failed to sustain above a near term resistance of 0.8463 and is back pressing 0.84. But after all, the strength in the pound is so far limited as traders are cautious ahead of today's FOMC announcement, as well as by BoE minutes released. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6207; (P) 1.6271; (R1) 1.6326; More... GBP/USD rebounds strongly today and the break of 1.6348 minor resistance suggests that the pull back from 1.6465 might be completed at 1.6216 already. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Break of 1.6465 will indicate resumption of recent rally and should target 61.8% projection of 1.4813 to 1.6259 from 1.5853 at 1.6747, which is close to 1.6476 next medium term resistance. On the downside, though, below 1.6216 will bring deeper correction to 55 days EMA (now at 1.6153). Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
21:45	NZD	Current Account Balance Q3	-4.780B	-4.600B	-1.252B
23:30	AUD	Westpac Leading Index M/M Nov	-0.10%		0.10%
23:50	JPY	Trade Balance (JPY) Nov	-1.35T	-1.13T	-1.07T	-1.09T
00:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence Dec	64.1		60.5
02:00	CNY	Conference Board Leading Index Nov	1.40%		0.60%
09:00	EUR	German IFO - Business Climate Dec	109.5	109.5	109.3
09:00	EUR	German IFO - Current Assessment Dec	111.6	112.5	112.2
09:00	EUR	German IFO - Expectations Dec	107.4	106.5	106.3	106.4
09:30	GBP	BoE Minutes	0--0--9	0--0--9	0--0--9
09:30	GBP	Jobless Claims Change Nov	-36.7K	-35.0K	-41.7K	-42.8K
09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Rate Nov	3.80%	3.80%	3.90%
09:30	GBP	ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Oct	7.40%	7.60%	7.60%
10:00	CHF	ZEW (Expectations) Dec	39.4		31.6
11:00	GBP	CBI Reported Sales Dec	34	10	1
13:30	CAD	Wholesale Sales M/M Oct	1.40%	0.30%	0.20%
13:30	USD	Housing Starts Nov	1.09M	0.95M	0.89M
13:30	USD	Building Permits Nov	1.01M	0.99M	1.03M	1.04M
15:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories			-10.6M
19:00	USD	FOMC Rate Decision		0.25%	0.25%
19:30	USD	Fed's Bernanke Press Conference

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped in European morning on cross-selling in euro against sterling after BOE and UK data and bids at 1.3750 were filled, however, bids are still seen from 1.3730 down to 1.3700 with stops building up below 1.3680-90, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3650-60 with more stops tipped below there. On the upside, offers are reported from 1.3780 up to 1.3810 (stops above), mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.3820-25, selling interest is tipped at 1.3840-50 (option barrier) and 1.3870-85.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3730

Despite intra-day initial rise to 1.3778, as euro has retreated in part due to cross-selling in euro against sterling, suggesting further consolidation would be seen but as long as yesterday's low of 1.3723 holds, prospect of another rebound remains, above said resistance would bring test of 1.3800, then last week's high of 1.3811, break there would extend gain to recent high of 1.3833 but only above there would confirm medium term upmove from 1.2042 low has resumed for headway to 1.3850

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8930

Despite yesterday's resumption of decline to 0.8833, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 0.8840 and current strong rebound suggest consolidation would be seen and another corrective bounce to 0.8918 cannot be ruled out, however, resistance at 0.8935 (Monday's high) should limit upside and bring another decline later, below said support would extend recent decline to 0.8815-20