Friday, March 28, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-28-14

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mildly Higher ahead of Weekly Close Dollar is mildly higher in early US session after income and spending data that are inline with expectations. Personal income rose 0.3% in February while spending rose 0.3%. Headline PCE deflator moderated to 0.9% yoy and PCE core was unchanged at 1.1% yoy. The data was actually hardly inspirational. But it's believed that commodity currencies bulls are taking profits as the week comes to a close soon and are adjusting positions ahead of the quarter end. Meanwhile, markets were not too bothered Chicago Fed Evan's dovish comments yesterday, who said "short-term policy rate will remain near zero well into 2015." Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3713; (P) 1.3755 (R1) 1.3781; More.... EUR/USD's pull back fro 1.3966 extended lower today and reaches as low as 1.3704 so far. As noted before, there is no clear sign of larger trend reversal yet. And fall from 1.3966 could be just a correction pattern. We'd expect strong support inside 1.3642/3772 zone to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 1.3875 will bring retest of 1.3966. However, we'd also like to point out the possibility that rise from 1.2755 could have completed with five waves up to 1.3966. Break of 1.3642 will at least confirm near term reversal and target 1.3476 support next. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
23:30	JPY	Household Spending Y/Y Feb	-2.50%	0.10%	1.10%
23:30	JPY	Unemployment Rate Feb	3.60%	3.70%	3.70%
23:30	JPY	National CPI Core Y/Y Feb	1.30%	1.30%	1.30%
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar	1.00%	0.90%	0.90%
23:50	JPY	Retail Trade Y/Y Feb	3.60%	3.50%	4.40%
09:30	GBP	GDP Q/Q Q4 F	0.70%	0.70%	0.70%
09:30	GBP	Current Account (GBP) Q4	-22.4B	-13.8B	-20.7B	-22.8B
09:30	GBP	Index of Services (3M/3M) Jan	0.90%	0.90%	0.80%
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Economic Confidence Mar	102.4	101.3	101.2
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar	-3.3	-3.5	-3.4
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar F	-9.3	-12.5	-12.7
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Services Confidence Mar	4.2	3.8	3.2	3.3
12:30	USD	Personal Income Feb	0.30%	0.30%	0.30%
12:30	USD	Personal Spending Feb	0.30%	0.30%	0.40%
12:30	USD	PCE Deflator M/M Feb	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
12:30	USD	PCE Deflator Y/Y Feb	0.90%	0.90%	1.20%
12:30	USD	PCE Core M/M Feb	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
12:30	USD	PCE Core Y/Y Feb	1.10%	1.10%	1.10%
13:00	EUR	German CPI M/M Mar P	0.30%	0.40%	0.50%
13:00	EUR	German CPI Y/Y Mar P	1.00%	1.10%	1.20%
13:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR F)		80.5	79.9

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Despite falling initially to 1.3705 in European morning on weak data from eurozone, the single currency reversed from low in part due to weekend short-covering, offers at 1.3755-60 and stops above there were cleared, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.3775-85, 1.3820-40 area and further out at 1.3860-70 (sizeable stops above), mixture of offers and stops remains at 1.3900. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3725-30 and indicated buy orders are still noted at 1.3695-05, more buying interest is tipped at 1.3660-70 with bigger stops placed below 1.3650.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6560

This week's rally suggests recent decline from 1.6823 has possibly ended at 1.6460 earlier this week and upside bias remains for the rise from there to extend further gain to indicated resistance at 1.6666, however, a sustained breach above there is needed to add credence to this view and bring subsequent rise towards 1.6718 resistance

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3790

Despite intra-day fall to 1.3705, as the single currency found good support there and has rebounded, suggesting minor low is formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen but reckon yesterday's high of 1.3797 would limit upside, bring another decline, break of said support would extend the fall from 1.3976 top to 1.3690-00, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3660-65