Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-6-14

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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Daily Report: Euro Soft ahead of ECB, Aussie Surges on Data Euro is soft against most major currencies, except yen and swiss franc, as markets await ECB rate decision and press conference. Economists generally expect the central bank to hold interest rates unchanged at 0.25% as February inflation data held above expectation. But the opinions were not one-sided given that, CPI at 0.8% yoy is way below ECB's target of 2%. Meanwhile, there are speculations that ECB could instead opt to loosen lending condition. Also, the governing council will release updated staff projections that stretch into 2016. And ECB president Draghi had described there will be a "very significant change in our analysis". Technically, Euro is staying near term bullish against dollar, and yen. However, the outlook against Sterling is rather unclear even though EUR/GBP is staying above a key support level at 0.8164. EUR/AUD, on the other hand, looks set to head lower. BoE will also release rate decision today but will likely stand pat and just release a brief statement. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5247; (P) 1.5307; (R1) 1.5343; More..... EUR/AUD's sharp fall and break of 1.5248 minor support suggests that the corrective rebound from 1.4987 has completed at 1.5499 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.4987 support. Decisive break there with have larger bearish implication and indicates medium term topping at 1.5831. The will be supported by break of medium term trend line, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, and head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5596; h: 1.5831; rs: 1.5499. In such case, outlook will be turned bearish for deeper fall. On the upside, break of 1.5404 will turn bias neutral and turn focus back to 1.5499 instead. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
0:30	AUD	Trade Balance (AUD) Jan	1.43B	0.11B	0.47B	0.59B
0:30	AUD	Retail Sales M/M Jan	1.20%	0.50%	0.50%	0.70%
11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders M/M Jan		1.10%	-0.50%
12:00	GBP	BoE Rate Decision		0.50%	0.50%
12:00	GBP	BoE Asset Purchase Target		375B	375B
12:30	USD	Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb			11.60%
12:45	EUR	ECB Rate Decision		0.25%	0.25%
13:30	CAD	Building Permits M/M Jan		1.90%	-4.10%
13:30	USD	Non-Farm Productivity Q4 F		2.60%	3.20%
13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs Q4 F		-1.00%	-1.60%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 28)		336K	348K
15:00	CAD	Ivey PMI Feb		56.7	56.8
15:00	USD	Factory Orders Jan		0.00%	-1.50%
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency met renewed selling interest around indicated level of 1.3750 and has slipped again and bids at 1.3710-20 were filled, however, buy orders are still seen at 1.3700, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3690, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3675 and 1.3650 (more stops below 1.3640), buying interest is expected at 1.3630 and 1.3600-10. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3750, 1.3780-85 and 1.3800-10, sell orders are tipped at 1.3825-30 (some stops above), 1.3850 (more stops above barrier at 1.3850) and 1.3875, selling interest is expected at 1.3890-00 with buy stop orders tipped above barrier at 1.3900.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8230

The single currency has slipped again today, suggesting caution on our near term bullishness and support at 0.8191 needs to hold to retain prospect of another rebound, above 0.8250 would bring test of resistance at 0.8261-68, break there would bring a stronger rebound to 0.8286 (another previous resistance) but above there is needed to confirm low is formed

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1000

As the greenback has slipped again after intra-day brief recovery, retaininig our view that near term downside risk remains for another corrective fall to 1.1015-20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0910-1.1194), however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0090-00 and bring another rise later. A break of 1.1115-20 would suggest low is possibly formed, bring test of 1.1160 resistance