Monday, March 24, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-24-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Markets Stuck in Range, Little Reaction to Poor Chinese Data

Markets are rather directionless as the week starts as major pairs are stuck in tight range. Yen is a touch weaker but loss is so far limited. Aussie also dipped mildly after weak Chinese data but quickly recovered. The flash Chinese PMI compiled by HSBC/Markit fell to an 8-month low of 48.1 in March from 48.5 a month ago. The market had anticipated a pickup to 48.7. the flash reading of the manufacturing output index plunged to a 18-month low of 47.3 last month. The disappointing reading indicated further moderation of China's growth momentum. According to HSBC, "weakness is broadly-based with domestic demand softening further". China is expected to "launch a series of policy measures to stabilize growth. Likely options include lowering entry barriers for private investment, targeted spending on subways, air cleaning and public housing, and guiding lending rates lower".

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8345; (P) 0.8358; (R1) 0.8373; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations would be seen below 0.8399 temporary top. But near term outlook stays cautiously bullish as long as 0.8286 resistance turned support holds. We're favoring the case that larger consolidation pattern from 0.8806 has completed at 0.8157 after hitting 0.8164 key support. Above 0.8399 will target 0.8466 resistance next. However, break of 0.8286 will dampen our view and argue that another low below 0.8157 could be seen as the correction from 0.8806 extends.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI Mar 48.1 48.7 48.5
8:00 EUR French PMI Manufacturing Mar P 49.6 49.7
8:00 EUR French PMI Services Mar P 47.5 47.2
8:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Mar A 54.5 54.8
8:30 EUR German PMI Services Mar A 55.5 55.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Mar A 53.1 53.2
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Mar A 53 52.6
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded sideway today as price consolidating this week's selloff, offers at 1.3800 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.3810 and in good size at 1.3830-50 area with stops building up above 1.3850, more sell orders are located at 1.3880 and 1.3900-15. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.3765 and 1.3745-50 (stops below), fresh buying interest is tipped at 1.3700-10 and further out at 1.3670-80.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8300

Although the single currency has rebounded after finding support at 0.8329 yesterday, as long as this week's high of 0.8400 holds, further consolidation is in store, risk of another corrective fall to said support cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.8300 and bring upmove later, above said resistance at 0.8400 would extend the rise from 0.8158 low for at least a strong retracement of recent decline to 0.8425-30

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.1180

As the greenback has retreated quite sharply after rising marginally to 1.1279, suggesting consolidation below this level is in store, however, still reckon support at 1.1153 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.1279 would extend recent upmove in wave (v) to 1.1300 and possibly towards 1.1350 but loss of upward momentum should limit this wave (v) of of wave iii to 1.1400

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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