Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-27-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Crosses Tumbled With Stocks and Yields

The Japanese yen rallies against most other major currencies as Asian equities are staying in red following the lower closes in US. There were renewed concerns over the situation in Ukraine as US president Obama warned of further sanctions to Russia if it engages in "deeper incursions" into Ukraine. Nonetheless, the decline is US stocks are more a reflection of the lack of follow through momentum ahead of near term resistance levels. DOW ended -98.9 pts, or -0.6% lower at 16268.99, well clear of this year's high of 16588.25. Similar picture was found in S&P 500, which dropped -13.06 pts, or -0.7% to close at 1852.56. That compares to this year's high, and historical high of 1883.97 made last week. We've mentioned in our weekly report before that markets are possibly turning back into risk averse mode and we'd still favor more downside in equities than upside.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.26; (P) 140.88; (R1) 141.27; More...

EUR/JPY's break of 104.44 indicates that decline from 143.78 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside. As noted before, corrective rise from 136.22 should have completed with three waves up to 143.78 already. Fall from 143.78 is viewed as the third wave of the correction pattern from 145.68. Deeper fall should be seen to 138.78 support. Break will target 136.22 and below. On the upside, break of 141.88 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook stays cautiously bearish.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Feb 818M 600M 306M 286M
9:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Feb 1.30% 1.20%
9:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.50% -1.50%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q4 T 2.70% 2.40%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 T 1.60% 1.60%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 21) 325K 320K
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Feb 0.00% 0.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -48B
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded lower and offers are lowered to 1.3820, more sell orders are noted at 1.3845-50 and 1.3870-80, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.3900, more selling interest is located at 1.3920 and 1.3940. On the downside, bids in good size are still seen at 1.3745-55 (stops below 1.3740), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3735, 1.3720 and 1.3700.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8280

Euro's retreat after meeting resistance at 0.8393 (yesterday's high) has kept price under pressure, retaining our view that further consolidation below last week's high of 0.8400 would be seen and near term downside risk remains for retracement to 0.8300 but renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.8280 and bring upmove later

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Hold short entered at 141.50

The single currency has remained confined within recent range and near term choppy trading should continue but as long as indicated resistance at 141.98 (last week's high) holds, consolidation with mild downside bias remains for another fall to support at 140.40-45, break there would signal decline from 143.79 (tentatively wave c of B) has resumed for weakness to 140.00-10

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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