Thursday, March 6, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-6-14

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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Euro Soars on Upbeat ECB Draghi Euro jumps sharply after ECB left rates unchanged at 0.25% today. More importantly, ECB president Draghi noted in the post-meeting press conference that inflation is going to accelerate gradually ahead. Inflation is expected to climb from February's 0.8% to 1.0% by the end of the year, 1.3% in 2015 and 1.7% in Q4 of 2016. Also, growth forecast was revised up to 1.2% in 2014. For 2015, growth is projected to be 1.5% and 1.8% for 2016. Meanwhile, Draghi also noted that latest economic data "fully confirm our decision to maintain an accommodative stance for as long as necessary." As widely expected, BoE left the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% and kept the asset purchase target at GBP 375b. Only a brief statement was released and focus will turn to meeting minutes to be published on March 19. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.19; (P) 140.48; (R1) 140.78; More... EUR/JPY's rally from 136.22 resumes today by taking out 141.26 strongly and reaches as high as 142.66 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 100% projection of 136.22 to 141.26 from 138.78 at 143.82. Break will target a test on 145.68 key resistance level. On the downside, below 141.11 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay mildly bullish as long as 138.78 support holds. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
00:30	AUD	Trade Balance (AUD) Jan	1.43B	0.11B	0.47B	0.59B
00:30	AUD	Retail Sales M/M Jan	1.20%	0.50%	0.50%	0.70%
11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders M/M Jan	1.20%	1.10%	-0.50%	-0.20%
12:00	GBP	BoE Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
12:00	GBP	BoE Asset Purchase Target	375B	375B	375B
12:30	USD	Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb	-24.40%		11.60%
12:45	EUR	ECB Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
13:30	CAD	Building Permits M/M Jan	8.50%	1.90%	-4.10%
13:30	USD	Non-Farm Productivity Q4 F	1.80%	2.60%	3.20%
13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs Q4 F	-0.10%	-1.00%	-1.60%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 28)	323K	336K	348K	349K
15:00	CAD	Ivey PMI Feb		56.7	56.8
15:00	USD	Factory Orders Jan		0.00%	-1.50%
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency surged in NY opening on soft US data and Draghi, offers at 1.3750, 1.3780-85 and 1.3800-10 were filled, some sell orders are tipped at 1.3825-30 (some stops above), 1.3850 (more stops above barrier at 1.3850) and 1.3875, selling interest is expected at 1.3890-00 with buy stop orders tipped above barrier at 1.3900. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3770-75 and 13750, more buy orders are located at 1.3720-25 with stops building up below there, more sizeable stops are placed below 1.3700, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3675 and 1.3650 (more stops below 1.3640).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy at 140.20

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after staging a strong rebound from 139.15, suggesting the wave b has possibly ended there as a triangle and retest of 141.27 resistance would be seen, however, break there is needed to add credence to this view and signal wave c is underway for further gain to 142.42 resistance, then towards 142.90-00

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy at 0.8975

As aussie has continued to move higher after staging a rebound from 0.8890, adding credence to our view that low is formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of 0.9049 resistance (last week's high) but only above there would revive bullishness and suggest fall from 0.9081 has ended, then test of indicated resistance at 0.9081-86 would follow