Thursday, March 27, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-27-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mixed Despite Positive Job Data, Sterling and Kiwi Jumped

Dollar is a bit mixed in early US session and is overwhelmed by the strength in Sterling, Kiwi and Aussie today. Meanwhile, the greenback remains firm against Euro and Swiss Franc and reversed earlier loss against the Japanese yen. The dollar index is engaging in tight range trading around 80 handle. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 311k in the week ended March 21, versus expectation of 325k. Continuing claims dropped by 53k to 2.82m in the week ended March 15. Q4 GDP growth was finalized at 2.6%, revised up but missed expectations. GDP price index was unchanged at 1.6%.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6527; (P) 1.6561; (R1) 1.6615; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.6465 extended higher today. The correction from 1.6822 could have completed at 1.6465 after hitting a medium term channel support as well as a 61.8% retracement level. But we'd prefer to see a break of 1.6654 resistance to confirm and at this point, we'll treat intraday bias as neutral first. Break of 1.6654 will argue that larger rally is possibly resume and turn bias to the upside for 1.6785/6822 resistance zone. Break of 1.6465 will extend the correction fro 1.6822 but we'd expect strong support above 1.6251 to complete such correction and bring rebound.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Feb 818M 600M 306M 286M
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Feb 1.30% 1.30% 1.20%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Feb 1.70% 0.50% -1.50% -2.00%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q4 T 2.60% 2.70% 2.40%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 T 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 21) 311K 325K 320K 321K
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Feb 0.00% 0.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -49B -48B
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound surged again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.6555 in London, offers at 1.6575-85, 1.6600-10 and 1.6625 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.6645-55, mixtures of offers and stops remain at 1.6670-75 and further out at 1.6700. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.6600, 1.6570 and in good size at 1.6550-55 (stops below), more buy orders are located at 1.6535 and 1.6515, fresh demand should emerge around 1.6500, 1.6485 and 1.6465, combination of bids and stops is tipped at 1.6450.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 0.8800

As the greenback found around the Ichimoku cloud and has rebounded again, retaining our bullishness for recent rise from 0.8699 low to resume after consolidation, above this week's high of 0.8879 would confirm and extend further gain to 0.8890-06 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9082-0.8699 and previous resistance)

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6560

Despite this week's initial fall to 1.6460, the subsequent cross-inspired rebound suggests low is possibly formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further gain to 1.6640-45, however, a firm break above indicated resistance at 1.6666 is needed to signal recent decline has ended and bring subsequent rise towards 1.6718 resistance later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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