Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-26-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sentiments Lifted by US Data and China Stimulus Talks, Aussie Firm

Investors sentiments were lifted by consumer confidence data from US overnight and boosted DOW higher by 91.2 pts, or 0.56% while S&P 500 rose 8.18 pts, or 0.44%. Conference board consumer confidence jumped to the highest level since 2008 and based on the tight correlation with unemployment rate, it suggested that the labor market condition in US continued to improve. That would likely be reflected in the non-farm payroll report next week. Meanwhile, sentiments were further boosted by talk of stimulus program by China in Asian session. It's reported that the Chinese government is considering to ramp up the stimulus policies, which could even include rate cut to spur growth to meet the 7.5% target in 2014. The likely policies to be used including lowering the bank reserve ratio, weakening of the Chinese yuan through intervention. Nikkei is trading up 30pts while HK HSI is up 200pts at the time of writing.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5080; (P) 1.5157; (R1) 1.5228; More...

EUR/AUD's decline continues and reaches as low as 1.5034 so far. Near term outlook stays cautiously bearish. As noted before, correction pattern from 1.4987 has completed at 1.5536 and fall from 1.5831 is likely resuming. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.4987 first. Break will target 100% projection of 1.5831 to 1.4987 from 1.5536 at 1.4692. On the upside, above 1.5241 minor resistance will delay the bearish case again and turn bias neutral.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb 0.70% 0.80% 0.80% 0.70%
7:00 EUR German GfK Consumer sentiment Apr 8.5 8.5
7:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Feb 1.44
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Feb 1.00% -1.00%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Feb 0.10% 1.10%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.9M
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped in European session after rising to a 4-day high of 1.3876 yesterday, bids at 1.3800-20 area and 1.3785 were filled but buy orders are tipped at 1.3765 and 1.3750 (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3735, 1.3720 and 1.3700. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3820 and 1.3845-50, sell orders are seen at 1.3875-80 and 1.3900 with stops placed above latter level, more selling interest is located at 1.3920 and 1.3940.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8290

Current sharp retreat has retained our view that further consolidation below last week's high of 0.8400 would be seen, break of 0.8329 support would bring retracement to 0.8290-00 where renewed buying interest should emerge and bring upmove later, above said resistance at 0.8400 (last week's high) would extend the rise from 0.8158 low for at least a strong retracement of recent decline to 0.8425-30 and later towards previous resistance at 0.8467

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.1180

Failure to extend early rebound and current retreat suggest further consolidation would be seen but as long as support at 1.1153 holds, bullishness remains for another rebound, above yesterday's high of 1.1246 would signal the retreat from last week's high of 1.1179 has ended and bring a retest of this level, break there would extend recent upmove in wave (v) to 1.1300 and possibly towards 1.1350

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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