Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-5-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Stays Pressured on Risk Appetite and Ukraine Tensions Eased Further

Risk appetites returned as tensions in Ukraine eased further. S&P 500 surged to close at another record high of 1873.91 overnight while DOW also rose 1.4% to 16395.9. Asian equities followed with Nikkei up 1.2% at 14897.6 even though it's still kept below 15000 handle. US treasury yield also staged a strong rebound with 30 year yield closed at 3.638% up 0.081% while 10 year yield close at 2.691%, up 0.084%. Dollar index is back above 80 level and is trading at 80.18 at the time of writing. In the currency markets, yen was hurt by the improvement in sentiments but USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are still held in recent range, below 102.82, 101.26 and 171.88 resistance levels respectively. Dollar is mixed in right range against other major currencies.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1039; (P) 1.1074; (R1) 1.1110; More...

No change in USD/CAD's outlook. Deeper decline is still mildly in favor. Fall from 1.1194 could be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.1223 and could extend to 1.0909 and further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0181 to 1.1223 at 1.0852. Nonetheless, break of 1.1159 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.1223 high instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Feb -1.40% -1.00%
0:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.70% 0.60%
8:45 EUR Italian PMI Services Feb 50.6 49.4
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Feb F 51.7 51.7
9:30 GBP PMI Services Feb 58 58.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jan 0.90% -1.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.30% 0.30%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Feb 150K 175K
15:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Feb 53.7 54
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.1M
19:00 USD Fed's Beige Book
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone after intra-day rebound from 1.3721 as Putin ordered troops back to base, however, offers are still noted at 1.3780-85, 1.3800 and 1.3825 (some stops above), more sell orders are expected at 1.3840-50 (more stops above barrier at 1.3850), 1.3875 and 1.3890-00 with buy stop orders tipped above barrier at 1.3900. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.3740-45 and 1.3700-20 area, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3690, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3675 and 1.3650 (more stops below 1.3640), buying interest is expected at 1.3630 and 1.3600-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8230

Failure to extend intra-day rebound and the subsequent retreat from 0.8261 suggest further consolidation would be seen but still reckon support at 0.8191 (last week's low) would contain downside and bring another rebound, above resistance at 0.8261-68 would bring test of 0.8286 (another previous resistance) but break there is needed to confirm low is formed and bring retracement of recent decline to resistance at 0.8300 and possibly 0.8325-30

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1020

The greenback continued to trade narrow and further sideways trading is in store, however, as long as indicated resistance at 1.1160 holds, near term downside risk remains for another corrective fall to 1.1015-20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0910-1.1194) where renewed buying interest should emerge and bring another rise later. A break of 1.1160 resistance would signal pullback from 1.1194 has ended and bring another test of 1.1194, then towards recent high of 1.1224

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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