Monday, March 31, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 3-31-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sentiments Firm on Hope for Chinese Stimulus

Asian equities are mildly higher as the week starts on hope of Chinese stimulus but gain is so far limited. The forex markets are steady in generally with mild weakness seen in Australian dollar ahead of tomorrow's RBA rate decision. Other commodity currencies, Kiwi and Loonie, are firm. Dollar and yen are the weakest currency next to Australian dollar. While more consolidation would likely be seen ahead of the key event risks later in the week, some important economic data today could trigger volatility, in particular in Euro and the Loonie.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.35; (P) 141.00; (R1) 142.04; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 145.68 are viewed as a correction that's not completed yet. Below 139.95 will affirm the case that fall from 143.78 is the third leg and bring deeper decline back to 136.22 low and below. However, above 141.88 minor resistance will argue that rebound from 136.22, as the second leg of the consolidation pattern, is going to extend above 143.78 before completing and start the third leg.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Feb -1.70% -8.30% -8.60%
23:15 JPY Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Mar 53.9 55.5
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb P -2.30% 3.60% 3.80%
0:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Mar 67.3 70.8
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 1.00% 6.10% 12.30%
7:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Mar 2.05 2.03
8:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Feb 75.0K 76.9K
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Feb 0.50% 0.30%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar 0.60% 0.70%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.40% -0.50%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 58.5 59.8
   
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Despite falling initially to 1.3705 in European morning on weak data from eurozone, the single currency reversed from low in part due to weekend short-covering, offers at 1.3755-60 and stops above there were cleared, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.3775-85, 1.3820-40 area and further out at 1.3860-70 (sizeable stops above), mixture of offers and stops remains at 1.3900. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3725-30 and indicated buy orders are still noted at 1.3695-05, more buying interest is tipped at 1.3660-70 with bigger stops placed below 1.3650.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.1170

Despite intra-day marginal fall to 1.1001, as the greenback found support just above figure and has rebounded, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and mild upside bias is seen for recovery to 1.1100-10, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1170-80 and bring another decline. We are keeping our view that wave (v) of iii has ended at 1.1279 and wave iv correction is unfolding for retracement of recent upmove

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.8280

As the single currency has remained under pressure, suggesting near term downside risk remains but as long as 0.8245 holds, prospect of another rebound is seen, above previous support at 0.8325-30 would suggest low is possibly formed and bring rebound to 0.8370 but only break of resistance at 0.8400 (last week's high) would signal another leg of rise from 0.8158 low is underway for at least a strong retracement of recent decline to 0.8425-30

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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