Friday, November 29, 2013

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-29-13

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Mid-Day Report: EUR/CHF Dives on Netherlands Downgrade

Swiss Franc jumps against Euro today after S&P lowered the Netherlands' credit rating from AAA to AA+. That left Germany, Finland and Luxembourg as the only AAA countries in the Eurozone. S&P noted that the Netherlands' real GDP per capital trend growth is "persistently lower than that of peers at similarly high levels of economic developments". And, "strong contribution of net exports to growth has not been enough to offset a weak domestic economy". The rating agency said it didn't anticipate real economic output to surpass 2008 levels before 2017. On, the other hand, Swiss franc was supported by KOF leading indicator, which rose to 1.85 in November, hitting the highest level since July 2011. That's above expectation of 1.81. KOF said that the positive tendencies dominate in Switzerland. EUR/CHF dives through 1.23 level in European session but is held within recent range above 1.2284 so far.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9035; (P) 0.9060; (R1) 0.9081; More...

USD/CHF drops further to as low as 0.9028 so far today, just inch above mentioned 61.8% retracement of 0.8889 to 0.9249 at 0.9027. Deeper decline could still be seen. But we'd expect strong support between 0.8889 and 0.9027 to contain downside to finish the pull back from 0.9249 and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9092 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9249.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Oct -0.60% 1.70% 1.40%
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Nov 55.1 54.2
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Oct 0.90% 1.00% 3.70%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Oct 4.00% 3.90% 4.00%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Oct 0.90% 0.90% 0.70%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov 0.60% 0.40% 0.30%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Oct P 0.50% 2.00% 1.30%
00:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Nov -12 -10 -11
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Oct 7.10% 5.00% 19.40%
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Oct -0.80% 0.50% -0.40% -0.60%
08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Nov 1.85 1.81 1.72 1.71
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Oct 67.7K 68.5K 66.7K 66.9K
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Oct 0.10% 1.10% 0.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct 12.10% 12.20% 12.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov 0.90% 0.80% 0.70%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Sep 0.30% 0.10% 0.30%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone and marginal gain from here cannot be ruled out, however, selling interest is still seen around 1.3625 and 1.3640-50 (more stops above barrier at 1.3650), offers are reported at 1.3670, 1.3700 and further out at 1.3750. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3585-90 and 1.3565, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3550 and 1.3510-20, fresh demand should emerge from 1.3495 down to 1.3475 with stops building up below 1.3470-75 and 1.3460.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6265

As the British pound has retreated after rising to 1.6374 earlier today and broke below the Kijun-Sen, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and correction to 1.6295-00 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon support at 1.6258 would contain downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.6374 would extend recent upmove to 1.6395-00

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3650 or on break of 1.3550

Although the single currency edged higher today and near term upside risk remains for recent upmove to extend gain to 1.3627-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3833-1.3295), as this move from 1.3295 is still viewed as correction of early fall from 1.3833, reckon 1.3650-55 (100% projection of 1.3399-1.3560 measuring from 1.3490) would limit upside and bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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