Thursday, November 21, 2013

Action Insight Daily Report 11-22-13

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yellen Closes in Fed Chairman Nomination, DOW Closed above 16k

US equities staged a strong rebound overnight as lifted by better than expected jobless claims numbers and the news that Yellen moved a step closing to becoming the next Fed chairman. DOW closed above 16000 level for the first time at 16009.99, up 109.17 pts. S&P 500 also rose 14.48 pts to close at 1795.85. 10 year yield edged higher to 2.839% but closed down at 2.784%. Same was seen in 30 year yield, which rose to 3.938%, hitting a new 2013 high before closing down at 3.883%. Dollar index also pared back some of the gains and is back pressing 81 level. In the currency markets, Aussie and Kiwi remained the weakest currencies this week, followed by yen and Canadian dollar. Sterling, on the other hand, is the strongest currency this week so far.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9176; (P) 0.9255; (R1) 0.9312; More...

AUD/USD's dropped sharply through 0.9267 to resume the whole decline from 0.9757 and reaches as low as 0.9197 so far. It's now just inch above 61.8% retracement of 0.8847 to 0.9757 at 0.9195 but there is no sign of bottoming. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained trading below 0.9195 will target 100% projection of 0.9757 to 0.9267 from 0.9447 at 0.8957. Near term outlook will stay mildly bearish as long as 0.9447 resistance holds.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report
07:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q3 F 0.30% 0.30%
09:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Nov 107.7 107.4
09:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Nov 111.5 111.3
09:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Nov 104 103.6
13:30 CAD CPI M/M Oct -0.10% 0.20%
13:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Oct 0.80% 1.10%
13:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Oct 0.20% 0.20%
13:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Oct 1.20% 1.30%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.50% 0.20%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Sep 0.30% 0.40%
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped briefly below 1.3400 before bouncing off low ahead of US opening, offers at 1.3435-50 area were filled, however, sell orders in good size are still seen at 1.3480 and 1.3500 with some stops placed above 1.3520 and 1.3550, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.3580-90. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.3430-40 and also in good size at 1.3390-1.3400 with stops building up below 1.3390, buying interest is tipped at 1.3370 and 1.3350 (stops below both levels).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Target met and stand aside

Yesterday's selloff reinforced our bearish view that rebound from 0.8300 has ended at 0.8464 and our short position entered at 0.8445 met target at 0.8345 with 100 points profit, however, euro needs to penetrate said support at 0.8300 to confirm early decline from 0.8815 (wave iii top) has resumed for a stronger correction of early upmove in wave iv towards 0.8260-65 (1.236 times projection of wave (a) from wave (b) top at 0.8770)

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0450

As the greenback has rebounded again after finding decent demand at 1.0436 yesterday, consolidation with upside bias is seen for another test of last week's high of 1.0526, break there would signal recent upmove from 1.0182 low (wave (c) bottom) has resumed and extend further gain towards resistance at 1.0560 but a break of this resistance is needed to retain bullishness and confirm early fall from 1.0609 has ended

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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