Friday, November 22, 2013

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-22-13

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Selloff in Commodity Currencies Continue, Europeans Firm

Market outlook remains basically unchanged as commodity currencies are generally pressured, followed by the Japanese yen. Meanwhile, European majors are firm against other rivals. Economic data from Canada saw headline inflation slowed further in October. CPI moderated from 1.1% yoy to 0.7% yoy, below expectation of 0.8% yoy. Core CPI slowed to 1.2% yoy, inline with expectation. Retail sales provided some support to the Canadian dollar as headline sales rose 1.0% mom in September versus consensus of 0.5% mom. Ex-auto sales, though, was flat and missed expectation of 0.3% mom.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6113; (P) 1.6157; (R1) 1.6242; More...

GBP/USD rises further to 1.6216 today so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. The larger rally is resuming for another high above 1.6259. But again, we'd continue to expect strong resistance from 1.6380 to bring reversal eventually. On the downside, below 1.6071 minor support is needed to signal topping or near term outlook stays mildly bullish.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report
07:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q3 F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
09:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Nov 109.3 107.7 107.4
09:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Nov 112.2 111.5 111.3
09:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Nov 106.3 104 103.6 103.7
13:30 CAD CPI M/M Oct -0.20% -0.10% 0.20%
13:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Oct 0.70% 0.80% 1.10%
13:30 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Oct 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
13:30 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Oct 1.20% 1.20% 1.30%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Sep 1.00% 0.50% 0.20% 0.10%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Sep 0.00% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to edge higher on release of better-than-expected German data, however, offers are still noted at 1.3540-50 (stops above) and further out at 1.3580, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.3600 (option barrier). On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3490-00 and in good size at 1.3450-60 (stops below 1.3440), more buy orders are reported at 1.3430 and 1.3400 (more stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3385, 1.3370 and 1.3350.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold short entered at 1.3535

As the single currency has continued to move higher after staging a strong rebound from yesterday's low of 1.3399, suggesting near term upside risk remains for gain , however, if our view that top formed at 1.3579 is correct, upside would be limited to 1.3550 and bring another decline later. A break of 1.3440-45 would suggest an intra-day top is formed and bring another fall to said support at 1.3399

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 100.60

As the greenback has retreated after meeting resistance at 101.35 twice, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 100.75 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 99.79-101.35) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon previous resistance at 100.43 would turn into support and limit dollar's downside, bring another upmove later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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