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Thursday, November 28, 2013

Action Insight Daily Report 11-29-13

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Down Trend Continues on BoJ Speculations

Yen selloff remains the main theme in quiet holiday trading today. Inflation data released from Japan today showed national CPI core accelerated to 0.9% yoy in October, inline with expectation. Tokyo CPI core accelerated to 0.6% yoy in November, above expectation of 0.4% yoy. Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 in November. However, other economic data were disappointing. Household spending rose 0.9% yoy in October versus expectation of 1.0%. Industrial production rose 0.5% mom, versus expectation of 2.0%. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.0% versus expectation of a drop to 3.9%. GBP/JPY remains the biggest gainer this month and this week, continuing to make multi-year high and is heading to long term fibonacci level at 168.11. EUR/JPY also head closer to 140 psychological level. USD/JPY also strengthens but is kept below this year's high of 103.73.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.73; (P) 138.25; (R1) 139.23; More...

EUR/JPY rally continues today and breaches 139.21 resistance to as high as 139.70 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally should target 140.98 long term fibonacci level next. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to bring reversal. But break of 137.98 is needed to be the first signal of short term topping. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Oct -0.60% 1.70% 1.40%
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Nov 55.1 54.2
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Oct 0.90% 1.00% 3.70%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Oct 4.00% 3.90% 4.00%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Oct 0.90% 0.90% 0.70%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov 0.60% 0.40% 0.30%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Oct P 0.50% 2.00% 1.30%
0:05 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Nov -12 -10 -11
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Oct 5.00% 19.40%
7:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Oct 0.50% -0.40%
8:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Nov 1.81 1.72
9:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Oct 68.5K 66.7K
9:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Oct 1.10% 0.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct 12.20% 12.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov 0.80% 0.70%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Sep 0.10% 0.30%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency edged higher in European session, offers at 1.3590-1.3610 were filled, stops above 1.3620 are in focus, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3625 and 1.3640-50 (more stops above next barrier at 1.3650). On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3585-90 and 1.3570, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3555-60 and 1.3525-30, fresh demand should emerge from 1.3495 down to 1.3475 with stops building up below 1.3470-75.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0525

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally, adding credence to our view that recent upmove from 1.0182 low (wave (c) bottom) is still in progress and may bring a retest of recent high of 1.0609, above there would encourage for further gain to 1.0650-60 and possibly towards 1.0700-10, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8375

As the single currency has remained under pressure after meeting renewed selling interest at 0.8391 earlier this week, our bearishness remains for early decline to resume after consolidation, bring a retest of recent low of 0.8300, however, break of this support is needed to confirm recent decline from 0.8815 (wave iii top) has resumed for a stronger correction of early upmove in wave iv towards 0.8260-65 

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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