Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Action Insight Daily Report 11-28-13

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: European Majors Firm as US on Thanksgiving Holiday

European majors continue to be the strongest currency in this holiday shortened week. In particular, Sterling is strong with over 200 pips gain against Japanese Yen and Canadian. Euro closely followed. Yen remained the weakest currency for the week and the month but commodity currencies aren't much better. Dollar is mixed even though it manages to maintain gains against commodity currencies and yen. In other markets, DOW made another record close at 16097.33 overnight, up 24.53 pts while S&P 500 rose 4.48 pts to close at 1807.23, also a record. Rally in bonds lost some momentum with 10 year yield up to close at 2.736%. Trading would like get subdued with US on thanksgiving holiday today.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.76; (P) 165.60; (R1) 167.19; More.....

GBP/JPY rises to as high as 166.65 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally is expected to continue to 168.11 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 163.67 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Oct 2.30% 2.10% 3.10% 3.00%
6:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q3 0.40% 0.50%
7:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Oct -0.30% 0.00%
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Nov 0K 2K
9:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Oct 1.70% 2.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Nov 98 97.8
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Nov -4.5 -4.8
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Nov -3.5 -3.7
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov F -15.4 -15.4
13:00 EUR German CPI M/M Nov P 0.10% -0.20%
13:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Nov P 1.20% 1.20%
13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Oct -0.40% -0.30%
13:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Oct -2.00% -1.50%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone, offers and stops at 1.3600-10 were tripped, however, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3625 and 1.3640-50 (more stops above next barrier at 1.3650). On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3570-75, 1.3555-60 and 1.3525-30, fresh demand should emerge from 1.3495 down to 1.3475 with stops building up below 1.3470-75, more buying interest is tipped at 1.3450-60 (stops below 1.3440).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.8375

As the single currency has retreated again after falter well below indicated resistance at 0.8415-16, retaining our bearishness for early decline to resume after consolidation, bring weakness to 0.8317 but break of recent low of 0.8300 is needed to confirm recent decline from 0.8815 (wave iii top) has resumed for a stronger correction of early upmove in wave iv towards 0.8260-65

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0525

The greenback has surged again after holding above support at 1.0520 (yesterday's low), suggesting recent upmove from 1.0182 low (wave (c) bottom) is still in progress and may bring a retest of recent high of 1.0609, above there would encourage for further gain to 1.0650-60 and possibly towards 1.0700-10, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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