Thursday, November 21, 2013

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-21-13

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Mid-Day Report: Yen Stays Pressured as Treasury Yields Extend Rally on Fed Expectations

The Japanese yen's decline is accelerating again in early US session as treasury yields are extending yesterday's rally. 30 year yield reaches as high as 3.915% so far today, just inch below 2013 high of 3.93% made back in August. 10 year yield also rises and is back above 2.80% level. Expectation, as triggered by FOMC minutes released overnight, that Fed could taper the asset purchase in coming months provided strong support to yields and some support to dollar. Yen was broadly pressured and has more room to decline in near term. Dollar was mildly supported, in particular against commodity currencies, but the strength against European majors were less than impression. Economic data released from US saw initial jobless claims dropped more than expected to 323k in November. PPI rose 0.3% yoy while core PPI rose 1.4% yoy in October.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.71; (P) 161.21; (R1) 161.59; More.....

GBP/JPY's rally resumes today by taking out 161.75 resistance and accelerates to as high as 162.86 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, we'd still be cautious on strong resistance from 163.05 to limit upside and bring reversal. Below 161.75 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 160.43) first. However, sustained trading above 163.05 will indicate strong underlying momentum and would target long term fibonacci level at 168.11 next.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Nov 50.4 50.8 50.9
03:15 JPY BoJ Decision
07:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Oct 2.43B 2.60B 2.49B 2.40B
08:00 EUR French PMI Manufacturing Nov P 47.8 49.5 49.1
08:00 EUR French PMI Services Nov P 48.8 51 50.9
08:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Nov A 52.5 52 51.7
08:30 EUR German PMI Services Nov A 54.5 53 52.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Nov A 51.5 51.5 51.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Nov A 50.9 51.9 51.6
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Oct 6.4B 5.1B 9.4B 8.6B
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Nov 11 1 -4
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 15) 323K 335K 339K 344K
13:30 USD PPI M/M Oct -0.20% -0.20% -0.10%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Oct 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Oct 0.20% 0.10% 0.10%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Oct 1.40% 1.30% 1.20%
15:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Nov 6.5 15 19.8
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov A -15 -14 -14.5
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 20B
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped briefly below 1.3400 before bouncing off low ahead of US opening, offers at 1.3435-50 area were filled, however, sell orders in good size are still seen at 1.3480 and 1.3500 with some stops placed above 1.3520 and 1.3550, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.3580-90. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.3430-40 and also in good size at 1.3390-1.3400 with stops building up below 1.3390, buying interest is tipped at 1.3370 and 1.3350 (stops below both levels).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 0.9145

Although dollar has retreated after faltering below resistance at 0.9192, as yesterday's strong rebound from 0.9080 signals a temporary low is possibly formed there, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to indicated resistance at 0.9201 but break there is needed to confirm and indicate the correction from 0.9251 has ended and bring further rise to resistance at 0.9226, however, reckon said recent high would hold on first testing. 

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3510

As the single currency has rebounded after intra-day initial fall to 1.3399, suggesting first leg of decline from 1.3579 (yesterday's high) has ended there and consolidation with initial upside bias is seen, however, reckon 1.3500-10 would attract renewed selling interest and bring another decline later, a break of said support would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.3579, bring test of previous support at 1.3390

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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