Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-27-13

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Jumps on German Coalition Agree, Sterling Stronger

Positive news from Europe boosted Euro broadly higher while Sterling is even stronger. It's reported that the two biggest parities in Germany, Chancellor Merkel's conservative party and the Social Democrats, struck a deal on forming a new grand coalition government. That should remove much political uncertainties in Germany and pave the way for Merkel to lead the country until 2017. So far, no detail was released regarding the agreement. But it's believed that the deal include raising the minimum wage and pension and should provide a boost to domestic demand. Released from Germany, the Gfk consumer sentiment reading for December rose to 7.4, beating expectation of 7.1. That's the highest reading in six years since August 2007.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.15; (P) 137.41; (R1) 137.69; More...

EUR/JPY's rally resumed by jumping to as high as 138.53 so far and intraday bias is back on the upside. Recent rally is now targeting 139.21 key resistance level. Note that upper channel resistance is taken out firmly. Daily MACD is also rising. Both suggest increasing upside momentum and 139.21 would likely be taken out. In that case, EUR/JPY would target long term fibonacci level of 140.98. On the downside, break of 137.09 is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Oct -168M -350M -199M -216M
07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Oct 1.28 1.56
09:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiments Dec 7.4 7.1 7 7.1
09:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
09:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Sep 0.70% 0.70% 0.60%
11:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Nov 1 10 2
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 23) 316K 330K 323K 326K
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Oct -2.00% -1.50% 3.70%
13:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Oct -0.10% 0.40% -0.10%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Nov 60 65.9
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (Nov F 73 72
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Oct 0.00% 0.70%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.4M
17:00 USD Natural Gas Storage -45B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone, offers and stops at 1.3600-10 were tripped, however, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3625 and 1.3640-50 (more stops above next barrier at 1.3650). On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3570-75, 1.3555-60 and 1.3525-30, fresh demand should emerge from 1.3495 down to 1.3475 with stops building up below 1.3470-75, more buying interest is tipped at 1.3450-60 (stops below 1.3440).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.9105

Dollar's breach 0.9062 support signals recent decline from 0.9251 is still in progress and may extend further weakness to 0.9024-28 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8890-0.9251), then towards psychological support at 0.9000, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.8970-75 and reckon 0.8950 would hold, bring rebound later. 

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6240

The British pound has rallied after breaking indicated resistance at 1.6240 and 1.6258-60, adding credence to our bullish view that recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.6330 and possibly 1.6370-75 (61.8% projection of 1.5854-1.6240 measuring from 1.6133) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.6395-00

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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